The National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago fell back in July to -0.10 after a brief move into positive territory during the prior month.

The Chicago Fed indicated that the production & income category made a positive contribution to the index. They were offset by negative contributions in the employment, the consumption and housing category. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a neutral contribution in July.

The three-month moving average of the CFNAI also fell back into negative territory where it has been now for eleven months.

A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth and during the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.

The complete CFNAI report is available here.