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Economy in Brief

U.S. Empire State Index Slipped This Month
by Tom Moeller August 15, 2007

The index of manufacturing activity in New York State for August slipped from its improve level of July & June. The Index of General Business Conditions fell 1.4 points after a 0.7 point rise in July. The figures are reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Since the series' inception in 2001 there has been a 75% correlation between the index level and the three month change in U.S. factory sector industrial production.

The index for new orders fell hard as did the index for employment. The shipments index was negative for the second consecutive month.

Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to an independent survey question; it is not a weighted combination of the components.

Pricing pressure also fell considerably with the prices paid index and the prices received index falling into negative territory. Since 2001 there has been an 88% correlation between the index of prices paid and the three month change in the core intermediate materials PPI.

The Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved to its best level in two years, mostly due to improved expected delivery times.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.

For more on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, including methodologies and the latest report, click here.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey August July Aug. '06 2006 2005 2004
General Business Conditions (diffusion index) 25.06 26.46 14.11 20.33 15.62 28.70
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