Recent Updates
- New Loans (Q1); Domestic Financial Assets Abroad (Mar); Korea: Trade by Commodity (Mar), Loans to Households & Enterprises (Feb); Pakistan: Trade by Commodity (Mar); Indonesia: Regional Gross Domestic Product (2017); India: Trade by Country by Commodity (Feb)
- Japan: ** Japan's consumption activity index rebased from 2010=100 to 2011=100.**
- Japan: Consumption Activity Index (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
by Robert Brusca August 14, 2007
3-month inflation shifts much lower.
French inflation trends show France’s contribution to the Euro area’s inflation trends are middle of the road. France is still not in great shape but it is not one of the problem countries on the inflation side. And France has seen its GDP slow unexpectedly in the second quarter. The French stock market remains one of the very weakest in Europe. We are for the first time getting some consistent signs of slowing from Europe. It’s too soon to say if they will last or not.
The trouble for the ECB is going to be sorting out the disparate trends. It will have to deal with its previous hint that it was set to hike rates and compare it to actual current needs. Financial markets events work to put the ECB on hold. And then there is the GDP picture which was not as strong in Q2 as had been expected across the Euro area. The moderation of inflation trends feeds a third development into this mix that also comes out on the side of pushing the ECB to stay its hand.
This by the way is not a isolated position for the ECB. Japan’s central bank is in a similar fix for all the same reasons.
| M/M % | SAAR % | Year/Year | |||||
| Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Yr Ago | |
| HICP Total | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.2% |
| Core | #N/A | 0.1% | 0.1% | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 1.5% |
| CPI: All Items | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% |
| CPI ex Food & Energy | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% |
| Food | -0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.1% |
| Alcohol | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Clothing & Shoes | -0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | -1.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Rent & Utilities | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.8% |
| Health Care | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | -0.2% |
| Transport | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 1.5% | 4.0% |
| Communication | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% | -3.8% | -0.6% | -6.2% |
| Recreation & Culture | -0.2% | 0.1% | -0.3% | -2.0% | -0.9% | -1.6% | -0.9% |
| Education | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% |
| Restaurant & Hotel | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.3% |
| Other | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% |
| 6-mo | 12-mo | Yr-Ago | |||||
| Diffusion | 54.5% | 63.6% | 45.5% | ||||
| 3COLSPAN | |||||||
