Recent Updates
- France: **France Wages and Earnings Rebased to Q2-2017=100**
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, US (Sep)
- Canada: CPI (Aug), Retail Trade (Jul)
- Canada Regional: CPI by Province (Aug), Retail Trade by Province (Jul)
- Norway: International Reserves (Aug), Government Debt (Q2); Finland: Quarterly Sector Accounts, Government Balance (Q2); Denmark: Property Price Indexes (Q2); Iceland: Wage Index (Aug)
- Turkey: IIP & Intl Reserves (Jul); South Africa: Retail Survey (Q4); Mauritius: PPI (Jun); Lebanon: CPI (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
EMU Sinks on New Flash PMI Readings
The EMU PMI sank to its cyclical low in mid-2016 then hit its cycle higher in 2018...
U.S. Financial Accounts See Borrowing Ease with Downswing in Federal Government Needs
Borrowing in U.S. financial markets slowed in Q2 2018...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Increase
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% (6.4% y/y)...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Hold Steady
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes during August were unchanged at 5.340 million (SAAR, -1.5%)....
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Weaken Again
The Philadelphia Fed that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 22.9 during September...
by Robert Brusca August 14, 2007
3-month inflation shifts much lower.
French inflation trends show France’s contribution to the Euro area’s inflation trends are middle of the road. France is still not in great shape but it is not one of the problem countries on the inflation side. And France has seen its GDP slow unexpectedly in the second quarter. The French stock market remains one of the very weakest in Europe. We are for the first time getting some consistent signs of slowing from Europe. It’s too soon to say if they will last or not.
The trouble for the ECB is going to be sorting out the disparate trends. It will have to deal with its previous hint that it was set to hike rates and compare it to actual current needs. Financial markets events work to put the ECB on hold. And then there is the GDP picture which was not as strong in Q2 as had been expected across the Euro area. The moderation of inflation trends feeds a third development into this mix that also comes out on the side of pushing the ECB to stay its hand.
This by the way is not a isolated position for the ECB. Japan’s central bank is in a similar fix for all the same reasons.
| M/M % | SAAR % | Year/Year | |||||
| Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Yr Ago | |
| HICP Total | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.2% |
| Core | #N/A | 0.1% | 0.1% | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 1.5% |
| CPI: All Items | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% |
| CPI ex Food & Energy | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% |
| Food | -0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.1% |
| Alcohol | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Clothing & Shoes | -0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | -1.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Rent & Utilities | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.8% |
| Health Care | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | -0.2% |
| Transport | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 1.5% | 4.0% |
| Communication | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% | -3.8% | -0.6% | -6.2% |
| Recreation & Culture | -0.2% | 0.1% | -0.3% | -2.0% | -0.9% | -1.6% | -0.9% |
| Education | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% |
| Restaurant & Hotel | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.3% |
| Other | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% |
| 6-mo | 12-mo | Yr-Ago | |||||
| Diffusion | 54.5% | 63.6% | 45.5% | ||||
| 3COLSPAN | |||||||
