Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Aug-prelim), Import/Export Prices (Jul)
- US: Consumer Sentiment Detail (Aug-prelim)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca August 14, 2007
3-month inflation shifts much lower.
French inflation trends show France’s contribution to the Euro area’s inflation trends are middle of the road. France is still not in great shape but it is not one of the problem countries on the inflation side. And France has seen its GDP slow unexpectedly in the second quarter. The French stock market remains one of the very weakest in Europe. We are for the first time getting some consistent signs of slowing from Europe. It’s too soon to say if they will last or not.
The trouble for the ECB is going to be sorting out the disparate trends. It will have to deal with its previous hint that it was set to hike rates and compare it to actual current needs. Financial markets events work to put the ECB on hold. And then there is the GDP picture which was not as strong in Q2 as had been expected across the Euro area. The moderation of inflation trends feeds a third development into this mix that also comes out on the side of pushing the ECB to stay its hand.
This by the way is not a isolated position for the ECB. Japan’s central bank is in a similar fix for all the same reasons.
| M/M % | SAAR % | Year/Year | |||||
| Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Yr Ago | |
| HICP Total | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.2% |
| Core | #N/A | 0.1% | 0.1% | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 1.5% |
| CPI: All Items | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% |
| CPI ex Food & Energy | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% |
| Food | -0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.1% |
| Alcohol | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Clothing & Shoes | -0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | -1.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Rent & Utilities | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.8% |
| Health Care | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | -0.2% |
| Transport | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 1.5% | 4.0% |
| Communication | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% | -3.8% | -0.6% | -6.2% |
| Recreation & Culture | -0.2% | 0.1% | -0.3% | -2.0% | -0.9% | -1.6% | -0.9% |
| Education | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% |
| Restaurant & Hotel | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.3% |
| Other | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% |
| 6-mo | 12-mo | Yr-Ago | |||||
| Diffusion | 54.5% | 63.6% | 45.5% | ||||
| 3COLSPAN | |||||||
