Recent Updates
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (Aug)
- US: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Aug)
- Canada: Wholesale trade, MSIO (June)
- Pakistan: Foreign Currency Deposits and Utilization (JUL)
- US: Empire State Mfg Survey (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca August 14, 2007
Inflation is slowing on a broad front in the UK in July - a quite unexpected development. Year/year, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is now below the 2% ceiling rate and suddenly that BOE inflation letter explaining why inflation had drifted above 3% seems oh so distant. The Retail Price Index (RPI) is still high but the Retail Price Index ex Mortgage Interest Payments (RPIX) tells the tale of sharply lower inflation too. Food costs are sharply lower. So are clothing and footwear, where price fell over three months.
This could be somewhat of a catalytic month for the BOE as well as for the ECB. Not only are we in the midst of financial turmoil at a time that the ECB had pointed strongly to a rate hike, but GDP growth has slowed. Now inflation, the reason for hiking rates is sharply lower, at least in the UK but also in France. Are things changing all that much or is this coincidence? Do you believe in Coincidence?
M/M % Change | % SAAR | ||||||
Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | 3-MO | 6-MO | 12-MO | Yr Ago | |
HICP | -0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% |
RPI: All Items | -0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% |
RPIX (ex mortgage interest) | -0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% |
RPI ex seasonal food | -0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% |
Food & Beverages | -0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% |
Housing & HH Expenditures | -0.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% |
Clothing & Footwear | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.4% | -0.8% | 2.8% | 0.1% | -1.3% |
Leisure Services | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% |
Leisure Goods | -0.1% | -1.4% | 0.1% | -5.6% | -4.8% | -3.0% | -2.5% |
Motoring Expenditures | -0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% | -0.3% | 3.1% |
Fares and Travel Costs | 0.0% | 0.9% | 3.1% | 17.3% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 0.0% |