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Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
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Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
Passenger Car Registrations Hold to Low Ground in Europe
Passenger car registrations in Europe fell on a year-over-year comparison for the fourth consecutive months in December...
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Import prices fell 1.0% during December following a 1.8% November decline...
U.S. Home Builder Index Improves
The NAHB -Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose to 58 during January...
by Robert Brusca August 14, 2007
Inflation is slowing on a broad front in the UK in July - a quite unexpected development. Year/year, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is now below the 2% ceiling rate and suddenly that BOE inflation letter explaining why inflation had drifted above 3% seems oh so distant. The Retail Price Index (RPI) is still high but the Retail Price Index ex Mortgage Interest Payments (RPIX) tells the tale of sharply lower inflation too. Food costs are sharply lower. So are clothing and footwear, where price fell over three months.
This could be somewhat of a catalytic month for the BOE as well as for the ECB. Not only are we in the midst of financial turmoil at a time that the ECB had pointed strongly to a rate hike, but GDP growth has slowed. Now inflation, the reason for hiking rates is sharply lower, at least in the UK but also in France. Are things changing all that much or is this coincidence? Do you believe in Coincidence?
| M/M % Change | % SAAR | ||||||
| Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | 3-MO | 6-MO | 12-MO | Yr Ago | |
| HICP | -0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% |
| RPI: All Items | -0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% |
| RPIX (ex mortgage interest) | -0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% |
| RPI ex seasonal food | -0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% |
| Food & Beverages | -0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% |
| Housing & HH Expenditures | -0.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% |
| Clothing & Footwear | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.4% | -0.8% | 2.8% | 0.1% | -1.3% |
| Leisure Services | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% |
| Leisure Goods | -0.1% | -1.4% | 0.1% | -5.6% | -4.8% | -3.0% | -2.5% |
| Motoring Expenditures | -0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% | -0.3% | 3.1% |
| Fares and Travel Costs | 0.0% | 0.9% | 3.1% | 17.3% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
