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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Treasury Statement, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity Slumps Again in January
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current conditions at the company level slumped further to -0.2 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Celebrates 100 Years With An Increase
In the 100th anniversary of it release, industrial production rose a greater-than-expected 0.3% (3.9% year-on-year) during December...
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
by Tom Moeller August 14, 2007
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales fell 0.9% last week, the third weekly decline in the last four periods.
The average level, thus, so far in August is up just 0.1% from July which rose 0.4% from the June level of sales.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS rose 0.5% (1.8% y/y).
The recent weakness in chain store sales came as gasoline prices for regular, on average, fell 2.4% last week to $2.77 per gallon (-7.6% y/y).
The average gas price so far in August is 5.4% lower than in July and prices have fallen 13.9% from their peak during May of $3.22 per gallon.
The market price for regular gasoline in N.Y. harbor fell yesterday to $1.99 (-0.9% y/y), but that was up slightly from the July average price of $1.96.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 08/11/07 | 08/04/06 | Y/Y | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 481.3 | 482.1 | 2.3% | 3.3% |
