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Economy in Brief

OECD Leading Indicators Point the Way Higher
by Robert Brusca August 10, 2007

Upswing is widespread.

The OECD area is on an upswing led by the United States. That is the message from the OECD leading indicators. It is a reassuring one in the face of global credit concerns and equity market meltdown. Indicators show the upswing in the US is the clearest and strongest. It is nearly as strong as the expansion signaled in early 2006. Europe is in an upswing but its acceleration is very mild. Japan has recovery from a very weak set of showings early in 2006 and is now more clearly on the upswing. The OECD prefers its six month signal as the most reliable. Six-month percent changes are plotted in the chart on the left.

OECD Trend-Restored Leading Indicators
Growth Progression-SAAR
  3Mos 6Mos 12mos Yr-Ago
OECD 5.1% 3.4% 2.3% 3.2%
OECD7 5.5% 3.1% 1.8% 2.5%
OECD Europe 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 2.8%
OECD Japan 3.4% 0.3% 0.5% 2.9%
OECD US 8.2% 4.9% 2.9% 2.3%
large image