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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca August 9, 2007
The UK trade balance has remained fairly stable through all this volatility.
The shorter growth horizons show that export growth has started to pick up at a fast pace than import growth. Yr/Yr exports are off a bit more than imports, but over the past 3-6 months they are up at a much faster pace and accelerating. Export growth is stronger across road vehicles, basic materials and firmer for capital goods. For food, beverages and tobacco, flows are still weak and dropping.
For imports, basic materials are strong and so are road vehicles, but vehicle imports have slowed somewhat. Food, beverages and tobacco imports are steady. Capital goods imports have slowed their decline. Overall imports are lower over three months at a 1% pace and up over six months by just 1.8%.
The slowing in imports has allowed the strength in exports to bolster the trade position in general. In June the deficit improved slightly to -£6.27bln compared to -£6.44bln in May.
m/m% | % Saar | ||||
Jun-07 | May-07 | 3M | 6M | 12M | |
Balance* | -££ 6.27 | -££ 6.44 | -££ 6.61 | -££ 6.78 | -££ 6.72 |
Exports | |||||
All Exports | 4.9% | 4.6% | 19.3% | 10.6% | -13.3% |
Capital goods | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | -21.0% | -52.0% |
Road Vehicles | 5.3% | 0.2% | 32.8% | 17.1% | 6.2% |
Basic Materials | -1.4% | 5.7% | 67.9% | 41.0% | 15.4% |
Food Beverages & Tobacco | -9.1% | 9.5% | -21.0% | -4.4% | -0.8% |
IMPORTS | |||||
All Imports | 2.9% | 0.5% | -1.0% | 1.8% | -11.9% |
Capital goods | 4.0% | -1.7% | -9.7% | -26.3% | -52.7% |
Road Vehicles | 3.7% | 6.9% | 18.8% | 36.6% | 12.3% |
Basic Materials | 1.2% | 2.7% | 46.3% | 15.3% | 22.7% |
Food Beverages & Tobacco | -1.5% | -0.4% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 4.9% |
*Stg Blns; mo or period average |