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Economy in Brief

Japan Economy Watchers Index in Steady Decline
by Robert Brusca August 8, 2007

Trends for Japan’s economy-watchers index have turned lower and remain in a downtrend after having made a local peak between February and April, depending on the series. Even this local peak is part of an ongoing downtrend for the indexes whose true cycle peak dates to early 2006. Japan’s policy markets do look at this index and it is considered reliable. One attribute of the index is that it is timely. The current and future portions of the index are turning lower and each displays three straight months of declines. The employment index ‘triggered the slide’ with a huge drop three months ago followed by two months of begrudging gains. The index does tell a reassuring story of Japan’s growth.

Key Japanese Surveys
  Raw readings of each survey Percent of 5Yr range*
  Jul-07 Jun-07 May-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Jun-07 May-07
Diffusion
Economy Watchers 44.7 46.0 46.8 49.7 3.8% 25.7% 44.4%
  Employment 51.2 51.2 50.7 57.1 4.0% 27.5% 35.6%
  Future 46.7 48.4 50.0 51.9 21.4% 34.9% 52.9%
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