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Special Topics
by Robert Brusca August 6, 2007
Year-over-year and six-month trends in UK IP are steady at a pacifistic 1%. But over the past three months UK IP has now accelerated strongly to a pace of just under 4% (at 3.6%).
UK IP is up strongly in Q2 (see end of the table). The overall gain in MFG is a rate of 2.8% Capital goods are leading the growth in Q2 with a quarterly rise at a pace of 4.9%; Consumer durables are the trailing category with a pace of just +0.3% in Q2. Vehicle sales have been firm, propelling vehicle output up at a 13.4% pace in Q2. Mining activity has been strong at 3.1% in the quarter but its growth patterns seems to show some cooling. Electricity, gas and water output have been weak, at a pace of 0.1% in the quarter, but apart from that the sector’s trends look solid.
| SAAR except M/M | M/M | Jun-07 | May-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | |||
| UK MFG | Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | 3-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | 12-mo | Q-2-Date |
| MFG | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.8% |
| Consumer Durables | 3.4% | -0.9% | -1.5% | 3.9% | -2.3% | -3.2% | -8.6% | 0.5% | -3.1% | 0.3% |
| Consumer Nondurables | -0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 4.1% | -2.6% | 0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | 1.4% |
| Intermediate | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | -0.1% | 2.1% |
| Capital | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.9% |
| Memo: Detail | 1-Mo% | 1-Mo% | 1-Mo% | 3-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | 12-mo | Q-2-Date |
| Food Drink & Tobacco | -0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 2.4% | -2.3% | 0.0% | -0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Textile & Leather | 1.4% | -0.9% | 0.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 0.0% | -0.7% | 0.2% | -0.2% | 3.5% |
| Motor Vehicles & Trailer | 2.1% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 17.1% | 17.0% | 13.5% | 9.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 13.4% |
| Mining and Quarry | -1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 4.9% | -1.0% | 9.1% | 2.1% | -0.4% | -2.7% | 3.1% |
| Electricity, Gas & Water | 1.0% | 2.4% | -1.2% | 9.0% | 0.8% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
