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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca August 6, 2007
Unlike the strength in UK IP in June or the sharp rise in orders in Germany, Italys MFG sector is showing a broad-based slowing.
Italys three-month growth rates by sector tell the story of a slowdown across the board. Overall IP remains in a declining mode for both 3-month and 6-month growth rates and these are both much weaker even than its Y/Y decline. The consumer sector in Italy shows an accelerated decline in the output of both consumer durables and nondurable goods.. One minor exception is the three-month bounce back in intermediate goods, up by 2.1% over three months but still showing a six-month rate of decline of 3.4%. Transportation is the counter-trend sector with output up by a strong 9.5% over three months and up by 0.7% over six months; its Yr/yr pace stands at 4.2%.
Italy has been showing more irregularity than other Euro area countries for some time. While German industrial measures like its IFO survey show that Germany is well off peak, other measures like German orders (issued today) still show a lot strength - even acceleration. But Italy, one of the weaker EMU countries in terms of its competitiveness is showing its wear and tear more regularly. I wonder if this is the way the strong euro will undermine the Euro area, by gnawing away at its weakest members first
SAAR except m/m | Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | 3-month | 6-month | 12-month |
IP-MFG | -0.7% | 0.6% | -1.0% | -4.4% | -5.5% | -0.3% |
Consumer Goods | -1.5% | 0.3% | -2.0% | -11.8% | -9.7% | -3.5% |
Capital Goods | -1.0% | 1.2% | -2.1% | -7.3% | -4.9% | 1.2% |
Intermediate Goods | 0.4% | 0.8% | -0.7% | 2.1% | -3.4% | 0.6% |
Memo: Transportation | 0.2% | 5.5% | -3.2% | 9.5% | 0.7% | 4.2% |