Recent Updates
- Israel: Average Housing Prices (Q2)
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (Aug)
- US: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Aug)
- Canada: Wholesale trade, MSIO (June)
- Pakistan: Foreign Currency Deposits and Utilization (JUL)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca August 3, 2007
With Q2 data complete, at least preliminarily, Euro area retail sales are continuing to show lethargy. For the quarter as a whole, retail sales volumes are up by only 0.6% at an annual rate over Q1. This follows a 0.2% result in Q1. Food purchases are off by 0.1% at an annual rate in Q2. Nonfood is doing somewhat better with a Q/Q annual rate gain of 1.4%. Still, this is no growth leader.
Germany is poised for a normal German recovery to take hold or so officials continue to say. This means that after a trade-led rebound with a strong capital goods sector, the consumer joins the party late. So far there is little evidence that Germany has turned that corner. The VAT hike at year end has surely been a part of the reason. But we are now at mid-year and German sales in Q2 are compared to a VAT distorted and weak Q1. And while Germanys retail volumes are up at a strong-seeming 6.5% annual rate in Q2/Q1 that compares to a -15.8% drop in Q1, it isnt really much of a rebound. Year-over-year German sales volumes are off by 0.7%. For all of the Euro area the Y/Y sales gain is 1.0%; nearly twice that for nonfoods at a 1.8% annual rate.
Within Europe the UK (not an EMU member but an EU member and one with a still strong exchange rate) continues to show strong retail sales results. The UK housing market is still strong. The Bank of England, like the ECB, is still warning about inflation pressures and probably is headed for another rate hike. But the UK consumer has been much more active that the typical Euro area consumer. In EMU, unemployment rates are still high, but they have been falling steadily. The proximity to low cost Eastern Europe may be one factor holding back consumer optimism. But one thing is clear, as surely as Europe has had a solid recovery underway, the consumer has been left behind. If Euro area job market improvement continues, this should change, but so far there is little evidence of it and leading economic barometers are showing that a tendency to slow is in the pipeline.
Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | 3-Mo | 6-MO | 12-Mo | |
Euro area 13 Total | 0.4% | -0.7% | -0.1% | -1.3% | -0.6% | 0.9% |
Food | 0.0% | -0.7% | -0.1% | -3.3% | -0.5% | -0.7% |
Nonfood | 0.8% | -0.7% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 2.1% |
Textiles | #N/A | -3.1% | 1.4% | -6.5% | -1.3% | 0.0% |
HH Goods | #N/A | -0.4% | -1.0% | -1.8% | -2.5% | 1.0% |
Books news, etc | #N/A | -0.7% | -0.3% | -1.1% | -0.6% | 0.3% |
Pharma | #N/A | 0.5% | 0.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
Other NonSpec | #N/A | -0.7% | -0.8% | -3.3% | -2.1% | -1.6% |
Mail Order | #N/A | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
NonFood Country detail;Volume | ||||||
Germany | 1.6% | -3.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | -10.0% | -1.0% |
France | #N/A | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
Italy (Total; Value) | #N/A | -0.2% | -0.5% | -2.1% | -2.2% | -1.6% |
UK (EU) | 0.9% | 0.3% | -0.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% |
Shaded areas calculated on a one-month lag due to lagging data. | ||||||
The EA 13 countries are Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain. | ||||||
7COLSPAN |