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Economy in Brief
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
German Inflation Rises
The German inflation rate as measured by the HICP accelerated to 8.4% in July...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca July 31, 2007
French household confidence stumbled by three points taking the aggregate reading to its lowest point since April of this year. The overall index resides near mid range among all values since 1990. Expected improvement in living standards and drops in unemployment are two of the factors boosting this index. Consumers say they have the ability to save over the next 12 months and that is an extremely strong response on their part, in the top 7 percent of this historic range. Consumers rate the times as slightly more favorable for spending than they did last month with a net response of -4 compared to -6, a value that ranks in about the top third of its range. Still, consumers rate their current financial situation as below average in only about the 42nd percentile of its range. That is a slippage from the 52nd percentile over the past 12 months; for the next 12 months, consumers expect an improvement putting their response in the 63rd percentile of its range near the upper third.
On balance, the responses by the French consumers are showing slippage. One of the main drivers holding things in place is the improvement that consumers have seen and continue to expect in unemployment. Consumers remain upbeat that their financial situation is going to improve despite this months slippage in the overall index.
Since Jan 1990 | Since Jan 1990 | |||||||||
Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | Percentile | Rank | Max | Min | Range | Mean | |
Household Confidence | -15 | -12 | -13 | -20 | 54.5 | 51 | 5 | -39 | 44 | -21 |
Living Standards | ||||||||||
past 12-Mos | -45 | -45 | -49 | -55 | 39.5 | 60 | 1 | -75 | 76 | -50 |
Next 12-Mos | -9 | -3 | 0 | -16 | 71.4 | 33 | 7 | -49 | 56 | -25 |
Unemployment: Next 12 | -9 | -9 | -12 | 4 | 16.2 | 193 | 84 | -27 | 111 | 40 |
Price Developments | ||||||||||
Past 12-Mos | -2 | -7 | -4 | 0 | 69.3 | 58 | 29 | -72 | 101 | -32 |
Next 12-Mos | -28 | -30 | -43 | -35 | 35.2 | 42 | 31 | -60 | 91 | -34 |
Savings | ||||||||||
Favorable to save | 32 | 34 | 30 | 26 | 44.3 | 162 | 66 | 5 | 61 | 43 |
Ability to save Next 12 | -4 | -4 | -2 | -9 | 94.4 | 3 | -2 | -38 | 36 | -20 |
Spending | ||||||||||
Favorable for major purchase | -4 | -6 | -9 | -12 | 67.8 | 43 | 15 | -44 | 59 | -14 |
Financial Situation | ||||||||||
Current | 14 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 42.9 | 79 | 26 | 5 | 21 | 14 |
Past 12-Mos | -14 | -11 | -15 | -18 | 52.2 | 83 | -3 | -26 | 23 | -14 |
Next 12-Mos | -1 | 3 | 7 | -1 | 63.0 | 86 | 9 | -18 | 27 | -2 |
Number of observations in the period | 208 |