Recent Updates
- US: Business Formation Statistics, Producer Prices (Jul)
- US: Business Formation Statistics by State (Jul)
- US: National Delinquency Survey (Q2)
- US: 1ST Time Housing Affordability (Q2)
- US: Producer Price Indexes Detail by Commodity Detail (Jul)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. CPI Unchanged in July with Drop in Energy Prices
Consumer prices were unchanged in July after an outsized 1.3% m/m jump in June...
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
German Inflation Rises
The German inflation rate as measured by the HICP accelerated to 8.4% in July...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca EU Indices Remain High-valued, but Main Index also Edges Lower, Pace Slows July 31, 2007
Even as the overall EU index of sentiment stays at a high level, its 12-month change is withering.
The EU retail index is relative the strongest this month as it resides in the top 4 percent of its range (96.3 percentile). The construction and industrial sectors also are in their 9th percentiles. Consumer confidence is lower than that, in the top 14 percent of its range, while the service sector is only in the top one-third of its range. Still, these are firm-to-strong readings.
But main country, Germany, is off for two months running. Italy has a string of declines. Spain is off for only the current month. France continues to show higher readings.
The overall industrial construction and services sectors gave back ground this month. Consumer confidence and retailing held firm.
Overall we must characterize the readings from this month as strong. But we offer the chart at the top as a reminder that once the rate of change begins to slip, this usually it is an authentic sign that the overall index is heading for a peak (this index already has done that) and then for some degree of slowdown.
In past peaking episodes the momentum measure peaked and fell off fairly rapidly. In this episode the loss of momentum is clearly more gradual. In previous cycles, the move from negative to positive back to negative momentum was usually executed more quickly than is the case in this cycle. That slower trajectory into negative momentum is a hopeful indicator. While the EU is sliding to a slower pace of growth, its rate of slowdown will be milder than in past episodes.
R-SQ w/Confid |
|||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EU | Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | Percentile | Rank | Max | Min | Range | Mean | |
Overall | 113.3 | 115 | 115 | 113.6 | 91.7 | 18 | 117 | 74 | 43 | 100 | 1.00 |
Industrial | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 94.1 | 8 | 7 | -27 | 34 | -7 | 0.89 |
Consumer Confidence | -2 | -2 | -1 | -4 | 86.2 | 18 | 2 | -27 | 29 | -11 | 0.81 |
Retail | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 96.3 | 2 | 6 | -21 | 27 | -6 | 0.46 |
Construction | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 93.3 | 13 | 3 | -42 | 45 | -18 | 0.43 |
Services | 20 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 68.4 | 57 | 32 | -6 | 38 | 17 | 0.80 |
% m/m | Based on Level | Level | |||||||||
EMU | -0.6% | -0.4% | 1.0% | -0.1% | 85.4 | 32 | 117 | 74 | 44 | 100 | 0.94 |
Germany | -0.5% | -0.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 76.1 | 18 | 121 | 79 | 42 | 100 | 0.61 |
France | 0.6% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 0.1% | 87.8 | 17 | 119 | 72 | 47 | 100 | 0.79 |
Italy | -0.9% | -1.3% | -1.4% | -1.0% | 70.0 | 64 | 121 | 72 | 49 | 100 | 0.80 |
Spain | -0.9% | 1.2% | -1.2% | -2.2% | 60.1 | 142 | 118 | 67 | 50 | 100 | 0.67 |
Memo: UK | -5.7% | 1.6% | 3.4% | -0.8% | 80.4 | 48 | 119 | 69 | 50 | 100 | 0.37 |
Since 1990 except Services (Oct 1996) | 208-Count | Services:126-Count | |||||||||
Sentiment is an index, sector readings are net balance diffusion measures |