Even as the overall EU index of sentiment stays at a high level, its 12-month change is withering.

The EU retail index is relative the strongest this month as it resides in the top 4 percent of its range (96.3 percentile). The construction and industrial sectors also are in their 9th percentiles. Consumer confidence is lower than that, in the top 14 percent of its range, while the service sector is only in the top one-third of its range. Still, these are firm-to-strong readings.

But main country, Germany, is off for two months running. Italy has a string of declines. Spain is off for only the current month. France continues to show higher readings.

The overall industrial construction and services sectors gave back ground this month. Consumer confidence and retailing held firm.

Overall we must characterize the readings from this month as strong. But we offer the chart at the top as a reminder that once the rate of change begins to slip, this usually it is an authentic sign that the overall index is heading for a peak (this index already has done that) and then for some degree of slowdown.

In past peaking episodes the momentum measure peaked and fell off fairly rapidly. In this episode the loss of momentum is clearly more gradual. In previous cycles, the move from negative to positive back to negative momentum was usually executed more quickly than is the case in this cycle. That slower trajectory into negative momentum is a hopeful indicator. While the EU is sliding to a slower pace of growth, its rate of slowdown will be milder than in past episodes.