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Economy in Brief

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Improved
by Tom Moeller July 25, 2007

The National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago improved in June to 0.11 from negative values which had been sustained during four of the prior five months.

The categories of production, income, sales and orders made positive contributions while the employment, consumption and housing categories were negative.

The three-month moving average of the CFNAI also improved but only slightly to a still negative value of -0.15, up from its worst level of -0.47 last November.

A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth and during the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.

All of the CFNAI components contributed to the January decline includingproduction, employment, consumption and housing.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.

The complete CFNAI report is available here.

Chicago Fed June May June '06 2006 2005 2004
CFNAI 0.11 -0.32 0.32 0.04 0.25 0.31
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