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Economy in Brief

by Robert Brusca Year/Year Growth in Italian Orders in a Slowing Trend July 20, 2007

Italy’s orders are on a broad slowing trend
…but sequential growth rates say activity is picking up.

The table below shows that, sequentially, Italy’s orders growth is accelerating as 3-month trends exceed 6-month trends and 6-month trends exceed Yr/Yr trends. Even so the accompanying chart shows that the Yr/Yr growth in orders is in a broad slowing trend. That chart suggests that the pick up is a pickup that is still in the broader context of a slowdown. Foreign orders continue to outpace domestic orders for Italy where the local economy has been lagging for sometime. This pattern, with foreign demand exceeding domestic demand, is a typical Euro area pattern with growth led by overseas demand.

Foreign orders have led activity here for some time. Are domestic orders really firming and closing the gap?

Italy Orders
SAAR except m/m May-07 Apr-07 Mar-07 3-mo 6-mo 12-mo
Total 2.5% -0.8% 4.9% 29.9% 9.7% 7.0%
  Foreign 5.2% -4.6% 6.9% 32.4% 6.7% 8.4%
  Domestic 1.2% 1.3% 3.9% 28.8% 11.2% 6.3%
  Sales 4.1% -1.8% 3.3% 24.2% 10.3% 7.3%
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