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Economy in Brief

by Tom Moeller Jobless Insurance Claims Down Further July 19, 2007

Initial unemployment insurance claims fell another 8,000 last week to 301,000 after a little revised 12,000 drop the prior week to the lowest level since May.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.

The latest figure is for the survey week for July payrolls and claims fell 25,000 (7.7 %) from the June period.

The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 312,000 (-1.1% y/y).

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 20,000 after a 77,000 increase during the prior week.

The insured rate of unemployment was stable at a revised 1.9%.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 07/14/07 07/12/07 Y/Y 2006
Initial Claims 301 309 -2.9% 313
Continuing Claims -- 2,571 3.2% 2,459
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