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Economy in Brief


by Tom Moeller CPI Total & Core Up 0.2% July 18, 2007

The June consumer price index (CPI-U) was up 0.2%, a moderation from the 0.7% increase in May.The rise was a bit faster than Consensus expectations for a 0.1% increase.

Prices less food & energy rose 0.2%, in line with expectations. The rise was up slightly from the 0.1% rise during May but the same as the average monthly increase during the first half of 2007.

Core goods prices fell 0.1% for the fourth consecutive month. Lower apparel prices account for much of that weakness with a 0.6% (-1.4% y/y) decline in June after a 0.3 fall in May. In the durables sector, new & used motor vehicles rose 0.1% (-2.0% y/y) while household furnishings & operation prices rose 0.1% (0.1% y/y).

Core services prices rose just 0.3% (3.4% y/y). Medical care prices rose 0.2% (4.0% y/y) but computer & services prices fell 1.8% (-16.6 y/y). Shelter prices rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y).

Energy prices fell 0.5% (+4.6% y/y led by the 1.1% (+5.0% y/y) drop in gasoline prices. They already have fallen another 2.0% in July but the latest weekly figure shows a rebound. Fuel oil prices rose 1.9% (1.0% y/y) and natural gas and electricity fell 0.1% (+4.5% y/y).

Food & beverage prices rose 0.5% (4.0% y/y) led by a 3.2% (6.6% y/y) increase in dairy products.

The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases, rose 0.2% (2.3% y/y) and the core figure was unchanged (1.8% y/y).

Consumer Price Index June May Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Total  0.2% 0.7% 2.7% 3.2% 3.4% 2.7%
 Total less Food & Energy 0.2% 0.1% 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 1.8%
  Goods less Food & Energy -0.1% -0.1% -0.8% 0.2% 0.5% -0.9%
  Services less Energy 0.3% 0.3% 3.4% 3.4% 2.8% 2.8%
 Energy -0.5% 5.4% 4.6% 11.1% 16.9% 10.8%
 Food & Beverages 0.5% 0.3% 4.0% 2.3% 2.4% 3.4%
             
Chained CPI: Total (NSA) 0.2% 0.4% 2.3% 2.9% 2.9% 2.5%
 Total less Food & Energy 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 2.3% 1.9% 1.7%
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