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Economy in Brief
Japan Shows Very Moderate Growth As Trade War Clouds Gather
Japan’s sector indexes showed a solid gain in February...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Rose in April
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 128.7 in April from 127.0 (initially reported as 127.7) in March...
U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes during March increased 4.0% (8.8% y/y) to 694,000 (SAAR)...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Continues to Strengthen
The FHFA index of U.S. house prices rose 0.6% during February...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $2.80 per gallon last week (14.3% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller CPI Total & Core Up 0.2% July 18, 2007
The June consumer price index (CPI-U) was up 0.2%, a moderation from the 0.7% increase in May.The rise was a bit faster than Consensus expectations for a 0.1% increase.
Prices less food & energy rose 0.2%, in line with expectations. The rise was up slightly from the 0.1% rise during May but the same as the average monthly increase during the first half of 2007.
Core goods prices fell 0.1% for the fourth consecutive month. Lower apparel prices account for much of that weakness with a 0.6% (-1.4% y/y) decline in June after a 0.3 fall in May. In the durables sector, new & used motor vehicles rose 0.1% (-2.0% y/y) while household furnishings & operation prices rose 0.1% (0.1% y/y).
Core services prices rose just 0.3% (3.4% y/y). Medical care prices rose 0.2% (4.0% y/y) but computer & services prices fell 1.8% (-16.6 y/y). Shelter prices rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y).
Energy prices fell 0.5% (+4.6% y/y led by the 1.1% (+5.0% y/y) drop in gasoline prices. They already have fallen another 2.0% in July but the latest weekly figure shows a rebound. Fuel oil prices rose 1.9% (1.0% y/y) and natural gas and electricity fell 0.1% (+4.5% y/y).
Food & beverage prices rose 0.5% (4.0% y/y) led by a 3.2% (6.6% y/y) increase in dairy products.
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases, rose 0.2% (2.3% y/y) and the core figure was unchanged (1.8% y/y).
| Consumer Price Index | June | May | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.2% | 0.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.8% | 0.2% | 0.5% | -0.9% |
| Services less Energy | 0.3% | 0.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Energy | -0.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 11.1% | 16.9% | 10.8% |
| Food & Beverages | 0.5% | 0.3% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.2% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% |
