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Economy in Brief

by Tom Moeller Industrial Production Rebounded In June July 17, 2007

For June, industrial production rebounded 0.5% after a revised 0.1% decline during the prior month. The magnitude of the rebound matched Consensus expectations.

Little of the figures were distorted by movement in the utility or in the mining categories. As a result, factory output rose 0.5% after a revised no change in May.

Consumer goods output surged 0.7% (1.6% y/y) led by a 2.5% (-1.7% y/y) pop in motor vehicle output. Production of computers & electronics also rose a strong 1.1% (9.3% y/y) while output of furniture rose a tentative 1.2% (-4.1% y/y). To the downside was production of apparel by 2.4% (-3.4% y/y.

Production of business equipment was unchanged for the second consecutive month (3.4% y/y), held back by a 0.6% decline in output of industrial & other equipment. Information processing & related equipment rose 0.4% (5.7% y/y.

Capacity utilization rose to 81.7%from 81.4% in May as capacity rose 0.1% (2.1% y/y for the fifth strait month.

How Accurate Are Real-Time Estimates of Output Trends and Gaps? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond can be found here.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (SA) June May Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Total 0.5% -0.1% 1.3% 4.0% 3.2% 2.5%
Manufacturing 0.5% 0.0% 1.6% 4.7% 3.9% 2.9%
Mining 0.6% 0.3% -0.9% 2.7% -1.6% -0.6%
Utilities 0.3% -1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 2.0% 1.4%
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