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Economy in Brief

Empire State Index Adds To June Surge
by Tom Moeller July 16, 2007

The July index of manufacturing activity in New York State added slightly to the improvement in June. The Index of General Business Conditions rose 0.71 points on top of its 17.72 jump during June. Consensus expectations for the Empire State index had been for a decline to a reading of 18.0. The figures are reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Since the series' inception in 2001 there has been a 75% correlation between the index level and the three month change in U.S. factory sector industrial production.

The index for new orders improved slightly and the index for employment jumped. Conversely, the shipments index fell considerably as did inventories and the index & delivery times, each into negative territory.

Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to an independent survey question; it is not a weighted combination of the components.

Pricing pressure also fell considerably with the prices paid index and the prices received index falling into negative territory. Since 2001 there has been an 88% correlation between the index of prices paid and the three month change in the core intermediate materials PPI.

The Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved. The index of expected new orders led the gain to the highest level in over a year.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.

For more on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, including methodologies and the latest report, click here.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey July June July. '06 2006 2005 2004
General Business Conditions (diffusion index) 26.46 25.75 20.33 20.33 15.62 28.70
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