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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Surges in June
Consumer credit outstanding jumped $40.1 billion (7.7% y/y) in June...
Japan's LEI Waffles and Slows
Japan's leading economic index in June slipped to 100.6...
U.S. Foreign Trade Deficit Narrows in June
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) fell to $79.61 billion in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Remain on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended July 30 rose 6,000 to 260,000...
RICS Survey Shows Weakening U.K. Housing Market
With the Bank of England hiking its key rate by 50 basis points and planning to squeeze its balance sheet...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Excess Demand for Goods Caused Supply Constraints
Q2 GDP Does Not Confirm Economic Recession, But It Does Confirm A Corporate Profit Recession
State Coincident Indexes in June 2022
State Labor Markets in June 2022
No Recession Call Can Be Made Before BEA Explains The Record Gap Between Income & Output
by Robert Brusca July 13, 2007
The BOF Outlook index hit a local peak from Mar 07; It is flat in June.
The Bank of France Business report is a comprehensive survey on businesses and their expectations. The table below is a summary of the more extensive report with industry detail. In that report the sentiment index at 108.2 is above its average since January 1987 that stands at 105. However, the index was flat on the month and it had reached its peak in this cycle at 111.89 in March. The index fell sharply from that peak and has stayed in a very tight range over the next three months.
French elections have taken place and the past few months are in the post election period; French consumer confidence has been on an extended rise in the wake of the elections.
As for business, the production outlook at 8.7 is below its average value of 12, although production in the current month at 10.8 is above its average value of 9.
Overall order books are stuffed compared with historic averages. The average for order books is +3 while the June reading is 26.8, the strongest category relative to its average by far. Foreign orders are also above normal at 12.1 compared to an average of 9. New orders are, however, not as robust at a level of 10.9 in June compared to an historic average of 10.
At 85.9, capacity use is above the historic norm of 84. Hiring in the current month at -1.8 is weaker than the monthly average of -1 while the outlook at -3.9 is better than the historic average of -6.
On balance, the BOF index is better than average. And while many of its component readings are above normal, most are not far above normal and there is some evidence of a loss in momentum.
12 MO | Since Jan-87 | 2Yr Percentile | ||||
Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | AVERAGE | Average | rank/range | |
Production-latest month | ||||||
Total Industry | 10.77 | 9.52 | 6.59 | 8 | 9 | 61.3% |
Production Outlook | ||||||
Total Industry | 8.7 | 17.66 | 7.34 | 9 | 12 | 51.1% |
Demand | ||||||
Overall order books | 26.85 | 29.77 | 30.57 | 25 | 3 | 84.5% |
Foreign Orders | 12.12 | 13.35 | 11.56 | 13 | 9 | 61.2% |
New Orders | ||||||
Total Industry | 10.89 | 13.11 | 8.68 | 11 | 10 | 49.4% |
Stocks: Finished Goods | ||||||
Total Industry | -1.4 | -2.68 | -5.36 | -2 | -2 | 57.3% |
Capacity Utilization | 85.96 | 85.72 | 86.05 | 85 | 84 | 89.0% |
Hiring | ||||||
Latest Month | -1.84 | 2.25 | 0.36 | 0 | -1 | 28.4% |
Outlook | -3.92 | -4.52 | -5.28 | -4 | -6 | 82.9% |
Industry Sentiment Index | 108.21 | 108.26 | 108.36 | 107 | 105 | 75.4% |