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- US: Monthly Treasury Statement, Wholesale Trade (Jun), Consumer Prices (Jul)
- Brazil: Retail Trade (Jul)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue Weakening
Retail gasoline prices declined to $4.04 per gallon (+27.3% y/y) last week...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 13, 2007
Surging petroleum prices fueled a 1.0% jump in overall import prices last month. The jump was about equal to the May rise and easily beat Consensus expectations for a 0.6% gain.
The increase occurred as petroleum import prices surged 4.7% in June after sharp increases during five of the prior six months. Further increases in July in the price of Brent crude oil to $77.12 from an average $71.0 during June promise another price gain this month.
Less petroleum import prices rose a modest 0.2 following the May jump of 0.5%. During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies.
Capital goods prices rose 0.2% (-0.1% y/y) after no change in May. Computers, peripheral and semiconductors fell 0.1% (-5.2% y/y) and less high tech, capital goods prices were unchanged (3.1% y/y). Prices for nonauto consumer goods were unchanged (1.5% y/y).
Export prices rose 0.3%. Nonagricultural export prices rose just 0.1% (2.9% y/y).
Import/Export Prices (NSA) | June | May | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Import - All Commodities | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 5.6% |
Petroleum | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 20.6% | 37.6% | 30.5% |
Non-petroleum | 0.2% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
Export- All Commodities | 0.3% | 0.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% |