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Economy in Brief

U.S. Budget Reverses May Shortfall
by Tom Moeller July 13, 2007

The U.S. federal government ran a surplus of $27.5B last month versus a deep deficit during May. Last month’s surplus was up from the June 2006 figure of $20.B.

The monthly figure was near Consensus expectations for a surplus of $30B. Analysts' forecasts of the Federal budget benefit from access to the Government's Daily Treasury Statement, the data for which is available in Haver's DAILY database.

The latest Midsession Review of the Budget can be found here

The June budget figures pulled the deficit for the first three quarters of FY07 to $121B, down from $206.5B during last fiscal year's first nine months.

Net revenues grew 7.5% y/y during the first nine months of FY07. Individual income tax receipts (44% of total receipts) grew 11.5%. Corporate income taxes (13% of total receipts) were down sharply as were estate & gift taxes. Higher employment levels raised employment contributions by 4.2%.

U.S. net outlays grew 2.5% during this fiscal year's first nine months versus last year driven by a 5.6% rise in defense spending (19% of total outlays). Medicare expenditures (12% of outlays) surged by14.7% while social security spending (21% of outlays) rose 5.7%. The government's interest expense rose by 4.6% y/y as interest rates have risen.

US Government Finance   June May Y/Y FYTD 2007 FY 2006 FY 2004
Budget Balance $27.5B $-67.7B $20.5B
-$247.7 -$318.7B -$412.7B
Net Revenues $276.5B $164.2B 4.6% 7.5% 11.8% 14.6%
Net Outlays $206.6B $231.9B 2.1% 2.5% 7.4% 7.8%
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