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Economy in Brief


by Tom Moeller Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Lowest Since May July 12, 2007

Initial unemployment insurance claims fell 12,000 last week to 308,000 which was the lowest level for claims since May. The decline followed a revised 3,000 worker increase during the prior week

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.

The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 317,750 (0.6% y/y).

A 4,000 decline (+5.2% y/y) undid little of the revised 74,000 rise during the week prior.

The insured rate of unemployment was stable at a revised 1.9%.

Should Monetary Policy React to House Prices? is yesterday’s speech by Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Plosser and it is available here.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 07/07/07 06/30 /07 Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Initial Claims 308 320 -4.9% 313 332 343
Continuing Claims -- 2,554 5.2% 2,459 2,662 2,924
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