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Economy in Brief


by Robert Brusca IP in Key EU Nations Trends Lower July 10, 2007

Industrial production is accelerating Yr/Yr in none of the countries.

All countries except Spain and the UK also demonstrate a sequential slowing. Each of them also had exhibited sequential slowing through April. The bottom line is that the main EU economies are seeing growth rates that are generally undergoing a deceleration. The degree of deceleration ranges from mild to more severe. And it is not certain that the deceleration will continue. In the case of Germany slowing IP is contrary to strength in industrial orders we have seen there. Moreover, despite some slowing output growth, Germany is still strong, at least Yr/Yr growth still is. Three countries, however, have Y/Y growth of 1% or less and Spain’s trend is moving erratically lower.

E-zone and UK IP and MFG
Saar except m/m Mo/Mo May-07 Apr-07 May-07 Apr-07 May-07 Apr-07
Euro-Zone Detail May-07 Apr-07 Mar-07 3-Mo 3-Mo 6-mo 6-mo 12-mo 12-mo
MFG -- -1.0% 0.4% -- -0.1% -- 3.2% -- 4.1%
Consumer -- -0.8% 0.8% -- -0.2% -- 1.7% -- 2.7%
Consumer Durables -- -1.9% 0.1% -- -4.7% -- -1.7% -- 2.1%
Consumer Nondurables -- -0.8% 0.9% -- 0.2% -- 2.0% -- 2.6%
Intermediate Goods -- -1.3% 0.5% -- -0.8% -- 2.4% -- 4.2%
Capital Goods -- -1.1% 0.3% -- 0.0% -- 4.9% -- 5.7%
Memo: MFG 1-Mo% 1-Mo% 1-Mo% 3-Mo 3-Mo 6-mo 6-mo 12-mo 12-mo
Germany 2.3% -2.3% 0.6% 2.4% -3.7% 5.0% 3.7% 6.1% 5.3%
France IP ex Construction 0.4% -1.0% 0.2% -1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 1.8% -0.3% 1.5%
Italy 0.7% -0.9% 0.3% 0.4% -4.8% -0.8% -2.2% 1.0% 1.0%
Spain 7.2% -5.1% 1.9% 15.7% -29.9% 7.6% -8.1% 2.5% 6.3%
UK 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 4.8% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 1.0% 1.4%
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