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Economy in Brief
German PPI Rises at Nine-Month High Pace
The German PPI gained 0.2% in June on the heels of a 0.6% rise in May...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Improve
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.5% (5.8% y/y) during June...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Recover; Prices Surge
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rebounded to 25.7 during July...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Hit Lowest Since 1969
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 207,000 during the week ended July 14...
Japan's Trade Deficit Swings Back to Surplus (Small Surplus)
Japan's early June trade results show a goods trade position having swung back to surplus in June from deficit in May...
by Robert Brusca German PPI Flattens Out July 10, 2007
The German PPI has slowed and now has its Yr/Yr pace below 2% at 1.9%. But excluding energy, price trends, as improved as they are, still are not favorable.
Since sector prices are not seasonally adjusted we also look at a sequence of Yr/Yr calculations by sector to discern trends. On that basis German inflation is not progressing. In the upper panel where data are seasonally adjusted the trends also have stopped declining for PPI excluding energy and PPI excluding construction. On top of that there is a more stubborn trend in services inflation to deal with. While the German WPI was portrayed as good headline report it is also not good enough.
| M/M | SAAR | |||||
| May-07 | Apr-07 | Mar-07 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | |
| Total | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% |
| Total excl Energy | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% |
| Total excl Construction | 0.6% | -0.2% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% |
| Yr/Yr Rates | ||||||
| NSA | Yr/Yr | 3-Mo Ago | 6-Mo Ago | Yr/Ago | ||
| Total | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% |
| Consumer | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Investment | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Intermediate | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% |
