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Economy in Brief
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
by Robert Brusca German PPI Flattens Out July 10, 2007
The German PPI has slowed and now has its Yr/Yr pace below 2% at 1.9%. But excluding energy, price trends, as improved as they are, still are not favorable.
Since sector prices are not seasonally adjusted we also look at a sequence of Yr/Yr calculations by sector to discern trends. On that basis German inflation is not progressing. In the upper panel where data are seasonally adjusted the trends also have stopped declining for PPI excluding energy and PPI excluding construction. On top of that there is a more stubborn trend in services inflation to deal with. While the German WPI was portrayed as good headline report it is also not good enough.
| M/M | SAAR | |||||
| May-07 | Apr-07 | Mar-07 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | |
| Total | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% |
| Total excl Energy | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% |
| Total excl Construction | 0.6% | -0.2% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% |
| Yr/Yr Rates | ||||||
| NSA | Yr/Yr | 3-Mo Ago | 6-Mo Ago | Yr/Ago | ||
| Total | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% |
| Consumer | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Investment | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Intermediate | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% |
