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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller No Gas in Weekly Chain Store Sales July 10, 2007
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey reported that chain store sales rose 0.1% last week following declines during the prior two weeks.
The average level of chain store sales as a result rose 0.1% during all of June versus the May average and began July 0.1% below June.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS rose 0.1% after a 0.6% decline during the prior week. Therefore, the June average level only rose enough to recoup a May decline and increased 1.1% in June.
ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 07/07 /07 | 06/30/06 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 480.6 | 479.5 | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% |