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Economy in Brief

by Tom Moeller No Gas in Weekly Chain Store Sales July 10, 2007

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey reported that chain store sales rose 0.1% last week following declines during the prior two weeks.

The average level of chain store sales as a result rose 0.1% during all of June versus the May average and began July 0.1% below June.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS rose 0.1% after a 0.6% decline during the prior week. Therefore, the June average level only rose enough to recoup a May decline and increased 1.1% in June.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 07/07 /07 06/30/06 Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 480.6 479.5 2.4% 3.3% 3.6% 4.7%
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