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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
Retail gasoline prices slipped to $2.88 per gallon last week (+24.2% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Backpedals
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo fell 2.9% (+3.0% y/y) to 68 during June ...
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In May, Japan has logged its second trade deficit in 13 months and only its third in the last 28 months...
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The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production eased 0.1% (+3.5% y/y) during May...
Empire State Manufacturing Index Continues to Strengthen
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose to 25.0 during June, the highest level in eight months...
by Tom Moeller No Gas in Weekly Chain Store Sales July 10, 2007
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey reported that chain store sales rose 0.1% last week following declines during the prior two weeks.
The average level of chain store sales as a result rose 0.1% during all of June versus the May average and began July 0.1% below June.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS rose 0.1% after a 0.6% decline during the prior week. Therefore, the June average level only rose enough to recoup a May decline and increased 1.1% in June.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 07/07 /07 | 06/30/06 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 480.6 | 479.5 | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% |
