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Economy in Brief
U.S. CPI Unchanged in July with Drop in Energy Prices
Consumer prices were unchanged in July after an outsized 1.3% m/m jump in June...
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
German Inflation Rises
The German inflation rate as measured by the HICP accelerated to 8.4% in July...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller Small Business Optimism Fell In June July 10, 2007
Small business optimism fell for the fourth month this year. The 1.2% decline followed a modest 0.4% increase during May, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).
During the last ten years there has been a 70% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
Respondents expecting the economy to improve remains low as did the percentage of firms planning to increase employment.
During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the NFIB employment percentage and the y/y change in nonfarm payrolls.
The percent planning to raise capital expenditures remained near the three year low.
The percentage of firms planning to raise average selling prices fell to the lowest in three and one months but the percentage of firms actually raising prices rose to the highest level this year. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the change in the producer price index and the level of the NFIB price index.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
The Role of Small and Large Businesses in Economic Developmen
t from the Federal Reserve bank of Kansas City can be found here.Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | June | May | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 96.0 | 97.2 | -0.7% | 98.9 | 101.6 | 104.6 |