Recent Updates
- Ukraine: Import and Export Indexes (Jun)
- Jordan: Exchange Rates (Jul)
- North Macedonia: Loans Granted to Households (Jul)
- Retail & Wholesale Trade (Jun)
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- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell Again in July
The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index fell 0.4% m/m...
U.S. Philly Fed General Activity Index Back to Positive Reading in August
The current general activity diffusion index rose nearly 19 points in August to 6.2...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Slightly Lower
Initial claims for unemployment insurance went down 2,000 in the week ended August 13 to 250,000...
Inflation Rages in EMU and Hovers Globally
Inflation in the European Monetary Union in July finalizes at 8.8% year-over-year...
U.S. Retail Sales Hold Steady in July; Nonauto Sales Rise
Total retail sales remained unchanged during July (10.3% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Bob Brusca July 9, 2007
Economy watchers survey results are in the lower quarter or third of their respective five year ranges. The NTC Manufacturing survey is in the bottom one percentile of its range. Teikoku Results for Manufacturing are weakening, but still stronger in relative terms, in the top third of their range
Japan is still having a hard time getting its economic traction. Its Economy Watchers Index fell in June and is further below 50; the future index fell below 50 for the first time in six months.
The NTC MFG index for Japan has been weak and sliding, as it has dropped for five months in a row. It was last weaker than its current value in June of 2003.
The Teikoku indices are weighted diffusion readings and readings for MFG are even weaker than for the NTC barometer in absolute levels; but relative to its own range the reading is higher than for NTC. Still the Teikoku indices show a rapid drop in the sector readings in recent months. In the past three months various sectors have dropped 10 percentile points to 15 percentile to 20 percentile points (retailing) in terms of relative standings. Cleary Japans economy is having some difficulties and we see that in the exchange rate.
Raw readings of each survey | Percent of 5Yr range* | ||||||
Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | Mar-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | |
Diffusion | |||||||
Economy Watchers | 46.0 | 46.8 | 49.7 | 50.8 | 25.7% | 44.4% | 59.8% |
Employment | 51.2 | 50.7 | 57.1 | 56.3 | 27.5% | 35.6% | 63.1% |
Future | 48.4 | 50.0 | 51.9 | 51.3 | 34.9% | 52.9% | 68.0% |
NTC MFG | 50.4 | 51.4 | 52.3 | 52.5 | 0.9% | 30.2% | 41.4% |
Econ Trends (Teikoku'/50 neutral/weighted diffusion) | |||||||
MFG | 44.6 | 45.2 | 47.0 | 47.2 | 69.7% | 76.2% | 85.1% |
Retail | 39.2 | 39.6 | 41.1 | 41.1 | 52.7% | 64.3% | 74.3% |
Wholesale | 42.1 | 42.8 | 44.3 | 44.6 | 68.0% | 75.6% | 83.5% |
Services | 48.6 | 49.1 | 50.3 | 49.9 | 83.0% | 88.4% | 93.6% |
Construction | 36.8 | 37.7 | 38.4 | 38.7 | 77.5% | 84.4% | 89.2% |
100 is high; Zero is low |