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Economy in Brief

Chain Store Sales Fell Moderately
by Tom Moeller July 3, 2007

Chain store sales last week fell moderately for the second week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. That pulled sales for all of June 0.5% below the May average which fell 0.7% from April.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS conversely rose 0.2% (-0.5% y/y) last week after a 0.6% decline during the prior period.

Stable Interest Rates Follow Stable Prices from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 6/23/06 6/16/06 Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 479.5 482.8 1.9% 3.3% 3.6% 4.7%
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