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Economy in Brief
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
U.S. CPI Unchanged in July with Drop in Energy Prices
Consumer prices were unchanged in July after an outsized 1.3% m/m jump in June...
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca French Household Confidence Rises by Two PointsJune 29, 2007
French household confidence rises by two points.
Unexpected strength - critics say it cant last.
Strongest reading since mid-2002.
Critics say that this spurt cannot last. A rise in confidence after the elections was expected. But this continuing rise is now on thin ice, or so many contend. A look at the survey responses may prove the critics correct, however. At best improved household confidence is speculative.
Much of the reason for the improved tone in the survey is based on the expectations of higher living standards over the next 12months. This response in the 80th percentile of its historic range is one of the stronger responses in the survey.
Consumers also expect to make more purchases. Car, home, and home renovation spending are high on consumers lists although NONE OF THESE improved in the current month. Oddly plans for consumer durable purchases are very weak, in the bottom 10% of their historic range. Expectations for unemployment in the next 12 months are in the bottom third of their range; the ability to save is in the 97th percentile for the next 120 months.
The current financial situation is only rated in its 38th percentile. For the past 12 months it is rated in its 65th percentile. For the next 12-months it is rated in its 81st percentile.
A lot is riding on the future, even the French admit; they aint seen nothin yet...its what they expect to see in the future that is driving confidence.
Sarkozy better be able to deliver the goods.
Since Jan 1990 | Since Jan 1990 | |||||||||
Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | Mar-07 | Percentile | Rank | Max | Min | Range | Mean | |
Household Confidence | -12 | -14 | -20 | -22 | 61.4 | 38 | 5 | -39 | 44 | -21 |
Living Standards | 10COLSPAN | |||||||||
Past 12-Mos | -45 | -52 | -57 | -59 | 39.5 | 61 | 1 | -75 | 76 | -49 |
Next 12-Mos | -4 | -2 | -17 | -20 | 80.4 | 19 | 7 | -49 | 56 | -25 |
Unemployment: Next 12 m | -3 | -3 | 14 | 27 | 21.6 | 187 | 84 | -27 | 111 | 40 |
Price Developments | 10COLSPAN | |||||||||
Past 12-Mos | -10 | -6 | 1 | 4 | 61.4 | 64 | 29 | -72 | 101 | -32 |
Next 12-Mos | -27 | -39 | -37 | -37 | 36.3 | 38 | 31 | -60 | 91 | -34 |
Savings | 10COLSPAN | |||||||||
Favorable to save | 35 | 31 | 26 | 27 | 49.2 | 152 | 66 | 5 | 61 | 43 |
Ability to save Next 12-Mos | -3 | -2 | -10 | -11 | 97.2 | 3 | -2 | -38 | 36 | -20 |
Spending | 10COLSPAN | |||||||||
Favorable for major purchase | -6 | -10 | -10 | -12 | 64.4 | 43 | 15 | -44 | 59 | -14 |
NSA | 10COLSPAN | |||||||||
Car Purchase | -70 | -73 | -74 | -74 | 83.3 | 4 | -67 | -85 | 18 | -76 |
Home Purchase Next 24-Mos | -82 | -85 | -86 | -86 | 90.9 | 2 | -81 | -92 | 11 | -87 |
House renovation | -50 | -49 | -51 | -51 | 96.8 | 2 | -49 | -80 | 31 | -70 |
Consumer durables | -10 | -10 | -9 | -9 | 14.6 | 186 | 2 | -12 | 14 | -2 |
Financial Situation | 10COLSPAN | |||||||||
Current | 13 | 17 | 12 | 11 | 38.1 | 99 | 26 | 5 | 21 | 14 |
Past 12-Mos | -11 | -14 | -18 | -19 | 65.2 | 50 | -3 | -26 | 23 | -14 |
Next 12-Mos | 4 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 81.5 | 21 | 9 | -18 | 27 | -2 |
Number of observations in the period | 208 |