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Economy in Brief

France’s Service and Industry Sector Outlook Strong
by Robert Brusca June 27, 2007

French climate and outlook are on a strong improving trend.

The services sector is still doing well. The climate and outlook indicators are strong in their respective ranges. Observed and expected sales are still strong but both are off peak. Observed and expected employment indicators are also off peak. The expected responses for these two indicators are sharply lower in June. Expected series are firm but only in about the 60th percentile of their respective ranges.

The second table below summarizes France’s Industry survey for June. The report scrapped and got back two of the four points it lost in May. The trends are still firm with climate nearly in the upper 25 percentile of its range. Recent and likely trend assessments spurted in June. Foreign and also domestic orders are slipping slightly with both having peaks in April.

France INSEE Services Survey Jan 2000-date
  Jun-07 May-07 Apr-07 Mar-07 Percentile Rank Max Min Range Mean
Climate Indicator 109 109 108 109 78.8 8 116 83 33 102
Climate: 3-Mo MAV 109 109 108 108 81.6 14 114 85 29 102
Climate: 12-Mo MAV 109 109 109 108 92.4 3 110 91 20 101
Outlook 9 8 8 6 86.1 6 14 -22 36 -1
Sales                    
  Observed 3-Mos 14 17 12 11 83.3 9 19 -11 30 6
  Expected 3-Mos 12 14 13 14 68.8 19 22 -10 32 7
Sales Price                    
  Observed over 3-Mos 1 0 2 -2 41.7 29 8 -4 12 0
  Expected over 3-Mos 1 3 0 -1 60.0 38 5 -5 10 1
Employment                    
  Observed over 3-Mos 13 15 13 12 70.6 11 23 -11 34 5
  Expected over 3-Mos 10 16 8 11 60.0 17 20 -5 25 5
INSEE Industry Survey
    Since Jan 1990 Since Jan 1990
  Jun-07 May-07 Apr-07 Mar-07 Percentile Rank Max Min Range Mean
Climate 110 108 112 109 74.0 41 123 73 50 101
Production
Recent Trend 24 14 10 -2 80.4 30 44 -58 102 -6
Likely trend 28 22 21 23 63.5 33 63 -33 96 7
Orders/Demand
Orders & Demand 4 3 5 6 75.9 27 25 -62 87 -15
Foreign Orders & Demand 4 6 10 9 69.7 48 31 -58 89 -11
Prices
Likely Sales Prices Trend 9 9 4 10 68.1 31 24 -23 47 0
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