Recent Updates
- US: Business Formation Statistics, Producer Prices (Jul)
- US: Business Formation Statistics by State (Jul)
- US: National Delinquency Survey (Q2)
- US: 1ST Time Housing Affordability (Q2)
- US: Producer Price Indexes Detail by Commodity Detail (Jul)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. CPI Unchanged in July with Drop in Energy Prices
Consumer prices were unchanged in July after an outsized 1.3% m/m jump in June...
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
German Inflation Rises
The German inflation rate as measured by the HICP accelerated to 8.4% in July...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca June 21, 2007
Italys consumer confidence fell off after peaking in February 2002. It bottomed in May 2004 and has been on a moderate rising trend ever since. But since March of 2007 a new down trend has developed.
The new weakness in Italys consumer confidence could be as simple as high oil prices. The recent surge in oil prices has become a problem for consumers around the world. But it could also have other factors at work. The responses to ISAEs survey make me think that the latter broader scenario is the correct one.
Overall consumer confidence in Italy is 39% of its peak relative to its trough, a weak showing. However consumers do not assess the past 12-months harshly. Their rating leaves it in the 66th percentile of its historic range. The household financial situation during that period however sank to a range position just 17% form the bottom. As a result, consumers rate their current savings as the highest of the period as they seem to have reacted by ramping up savings and spending less than they might have been able to afford. Major purchases are rated in the bottom third of their range currently.
Ominously, for the period ahead, Italian consumers are very glum. They rate the overall conditions in the next 12 months in the bottom fifth of their range. Unemployment is rated in the top 20% of its range; consumers rate their own budget as the worst ever. They do not expect to be able to compensate and save as they rate future savings as in the bottom third of its range.
The responses from the Italian consumers are striking for their equanimity in assessing the past 12 months which then morphs into outright pessimism for the period ahead. Italys retail sales trends have reflected this sort of borderline angst for some time. Italy is of course one of the weaker large economies and seems to have trouble with its competitiveness. Italian industrial statistics including foreign orders have been afflicted with weakness, or at least a slowing trend. While unemployment has been dropping steadily in Italy it is clear that consumers do not extrapolate that success into the future. Is Italy alone in this, or is this sort of pessimism a harbinger of things to come in the rest of Europe?
Since 1990 | ||||||||
Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | 12-MO Avg | AVG | Max | Min | % Range | |
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE | 107.2 | 109.4 | 107.8 | -110 | -112 | 128 | 94 | 39.5% |
Last 12-Mos | ||||||||
Overall Situation | -60 | -52 | -55 | 57 | 68 | -17 | -147 | 66.9% |
Price Trends | -27.5 | -24.5 | -26.5 | 24 | 16 | 4 | -34 | 17.3% |
HH Financial Situation | -40 | -35 | -38 | 36 | 27 | 0 | -49 | 18.4% |
Current | ||||||||
HH Savings** | 78 | 77 | 73 | -71 | -62 | 78 | 49 | 100.0% |
Major Purchases** | 25.5 | 23.5 | 23 | -24 | -28 | 41 | 18 | 34.8% |
Next 12 Months | ||||||||
Overall Situation* | -22 | -18 | -17 | 17 | 11 | 24 | -34 | 20.7% |
Prices Trends | 19 | 17.5 | 15.5 | -16 | -24 | 49 | 7 | 28.6% |
Unemployment | 2 | -5 | -5 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -30 | 82.1% |
Budget | -1 | 3 | 2 | -7 | -20 | 40 | -1 | 0.0% |
Purchases planned** | 10.5 | 8.5 | 7.5 | -10 | -11 | 20 | 4 | 40.6% |
Future | ||||||||
**Savings | 26.5 | 26.5 | 23 | -27 | -34 | 43 | 20 | 29.8% |
* Since Nov 1998, index is More +0.5 'Probable' or +0.5 'same' depending on category |