Recent Updates
- Australia: Labor Force Survey (Mar), Import/Export Price Indexes, SME Business Survey (Q1), Cash Flow Statements (2017)
- Japan: Input Output Prices (Mar), First 10 Days Trade (Apr), International Trade (Mar-Final)
- Brunei: International Trade (Dec); Korea: GDP (Q1); China: Gini Coefficient (2017), Construction Output Value (Q1); Myanmar: Overseas Employment (Aug)
- US: Business Employment Dynamics (Q3)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Japan Shows Very Moderate Growth As Trade War Clouds Gather
Japan’s sector indexes showed a solid gain in February...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Rose in April
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 128.7 in April from 127.0 (initially reported as 127.7) in March...
U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes during March increased 4.0% (8.8% y/y) to 694,000 (SAAR)...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Continues to Strengthen
The FHFA index of U.S. house prices rose 0.6% during February...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $2.80 per gallon last week (14.3% y/y)...
by Robert Brusca June 8, 2007
Japans economy watchers survey cycled higher from late 2004 through early 2005. Then it dropped off until picking up to a minor peak in August 2006. From that mini- peak it spread out on a gradual increase until it fell sharply again in May, the figure reported today a sharp drop.
The employment and future indexes are cycling in concert but with smaller amplitudes.
The Teikoku indexes and NTC MFG survey echo the findings of weakness but the various surveys find weakness in differing magnitudes. See table below.
The far right columns put the recent observations for each index or sub-reading in the context of its five year max or min. This allows us to compared intrinsically different indicators.
Results show that the NTC MFG index is the weakest in the 30th percentile of its range for this period. Next in line comes the economy watcher index and its components with the headline index at 44.4% of its range. The Teikoku indices are the strongest with MFG relatively firm at a range reading of 75% (top 25% of its range) and with retail the relative weakest at 64% of its range. Wholesale services and construction are relatively healthy in the Teikoku scheme. Even so the Teikoku indices are dropping and all sectors dropped again in May. They made their local peak about one year and have been slipping slowly ever since.
Raw readings of each survey | Percent of 5Yr range* | ||||||
May-07 | Apr-07 | Mar-07 | Feb-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | Mar-07 | |
Diffusion | |||||||
Economy Watchers | 46.8 | 49.7 | 50.8 | 49.2 | 44.4% | 59.8% | 65.6% |
Employment | 50.7 | 57.1 | 56.3 | 55.9 | 35.6% | 63.1% | 59.7% |
Future | 50.0 | 51.9 | 51.3 | 52.1 | 52.9% | 68.0% | 70.6% |
NTC MFG | 51.4 | 52.3 | -- | -- | 30.2% | 41.4% | 43.5% |
Econ Trends (Teikoku'/50 neutral/weighted diffusion) | |||||||
MFG | 45.2 | 47.0 | 47.2 | 46.7 | 76.2% | 85.1% | 86.2% |
Retail | 39.6 | 41.1 | 41.1 | 39.9 | 64.3% | 74.3% | 74.3% |
Wholesale | 42.8 | 44.3 | 44.6 | 43.8 | 75.6% | 83.5% | 85.8% |
Services | 49.1 | 50.3 | 49.9 | 49.4 | 88.4% | 93.6% | 92.2% |
Construction | 37.7 | 38.4 | 38.7 | 38.7 | 84.4% | 89.2% | 91.2% |
100 is high; Zero is low |