Recent Updates
- Japan: ** Japan IP forecasts have rebased from 2010=100 to 2015=100. We are currently working on processing the new data.**
- ** New Zealand Jobs Online has changed its reported frequency from monthly to quarterly and rebased from August 2010=100 to Q4 2010=100. **
- Australia: PPI, Manufacturing Price, Construction Materials Prices (Mar); New Zealand: Trade by Country by Commodity, International Trade (Mar); ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Hits Record High
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity surged to a record 26...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline Sharply
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 209,000 (-17.1% y/y)...
German Confidence Flattens and Falters
German confidence for May is mooted at a 97.8% queue percentile standing...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Are Little Changed; Rates Remain High
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Volume Index eased 0.2% last week (-1.9% y/y)...
Japan Shows Very Moderate Growth As Trade War Clouds Gather
Japan’s sector indexes showed a solid gain in February...
by Bob Brusca Conference Board Index Rises in May; April Revised Higher May 29, 2007
The Conference Board reading is strong with the present situation index up and displaying the sort of upward trend that should dispel any worries about an impending economic slowing.
Expectations readings are well off their top but actually show a small positive trend. The overall index itself is in a steady uptrend now. This is more impressive against the background of surging prices for gasoline.
The table below chronicles the readings for confidence and the present situation by region. Regionally we see that weakness is clustered in the Eastern regions. As we move down the table and toward the West there are fewer red percentage changes signaling declines over some horizon.
In the East conditions are mostly lagging below their six-month average values while in the West they mostly reside above those levels. However, regional confidence slipped in May in only three regions: New England, Mid-Atlantic states and South Atlantic states. Over three months confidence is lower in six of nine regions. Over six months, confidence is lower in four of nine regions. Over a period of one year, confidence lags in three of nine regions. Despite the greater breadth of weakness in consumer confidence in recent months, in May conditions improved in most regions. In May conditions improved across most regions for the present situation as well as for consumer confidence overall.
The current readings are very strong. If we place regional readings in the percentile of their range since October 2003, we find seven of nine regions have a current reading that is at or above the 80th percentile of its respective range. The exceptions are New England and the South Atlantic. Expectations are at 80% of range mostly out West: in the Mountain states, Pacific states (100th percentile!) and West South Central. The East South Central is also an 80th percentile or better reading. Mid-Atlantic confidence is in the 72 percentile and the West North Central is in the 56th percentile but New England, East North Central and the South Atlantic are weak. On balance, the Conference Board report is upbeat and is much better than expected.
Regions: | Levels Of Index Numbers | Avg Level | 1-Mo Pct | 3-Mo Pct | 6-Mo Pct | Yr/Yr Pct | |||||
May-07 | Apr-07 | Mar-07 | Feb-07 | Nov-06 | Oct-06 | 6-mo | Mo Rate | At AR | At AR | At AR | |
New England | 78.5 | 83.7 | 91.6 | 110 | 87.5 | 91.2 | 90.3 | -6.2% | -114.5% | -37.1% | -6.4% |
Current Cond. | 107.7 | 102 | 136.3 | 133 | 102.9 | 119.4 | 116.4 | 5.6% | -76.1% | -23.2% | -6.9% |
MidAtlantic | 91.2 | 95 | 98.1 | 100 | 88.9 | 89 | 94.6 | -4.0% | -35.2% | -1.5% | 8.6% |
Current Cond. | 114.9 | 118.4 | 119.9 | 117.8 | 105.2 | 105.7 | 115.2 | -3.0% | -9.8% | 1.6% | 4.3% |
East North Central | 68.8 | 59.1 | 66 | 83.7 | 75.6 | 75.9 | 70.6 | 16.4% | -71.2% | 9.1% | -8.8% |
Current Cond. | 86.7 | 62.8 | 75.6 | 85.3 | 75.8 | 85.8 | 77.2 | 38.1% | 6.6% | 57.7% | 1.9% |
West North Central | 104.5 | 97.2 | 115.6 | 107.6 | 103.6 | 99.5 | 105.7 | 7.5% | -11.5% | -15.0% | 0.3% |
Current Cond. | 139.9 | 132.3 | 150.8 | 149.5 | 148.5 | 123.5 | 144.2 | 5.7% | -25.7% | 9.6% | 2.6% |
South Atlantic | 115.3 | 118.6 | 117.7 | 131.1 | 119.3 | 119.1 | 120.4 | -2.8% | -48.2% | -7.2% | -1.5% |
Current Cond. | 143.9 | 143.7 | 149.2 | 155.9 | 147.3 | 146.1 | 148.0 | 0.1% | -30.8% | -8.3% | -5.3% |
East South Central | 123.2 | 116.5 | 121 | 108.2 | 102.3 | 114.4 | 114.2 | 5.8% | 55.5% | 27.7% | 14.6% |
Current Cond. | 132.1 | 138.1 | 147.2 | 130.5 | 121.1 | 128 | 133.8 | -4.3% | 4.9% | 20.4% | -4.0% |
West South Central | 134.3 | 123.7 | 129.3 | 129.7 | 116.9 | 131.1 | 126.8 | 8.6% | 14.2% | 0.4% | 11.0% |
Current Cond. | 167.2 | 151.6 | 158.3 | 165.9 | 140.8 | 162 | 156.8 | 10.3% | 3.1% | 9.8% | 12.4% |
Mountain | 143.2 | 139.1 | 143.5 | 148.8 | 119.8 | 130.1 | 138.9 | 2.9% | -15.1% | 26.4% | 11.7% |
Current Cond. | 180.1 | 175.9 | 181.2 | 177.7 | 163.6 | 165.3 | 175.7 | 2.4% | 5.4% | 23.4% | 14.0% |
Pacific | 130.2 | 123.2 | 122.5 | 124.2 | 122 | 127 | 124.4 | 5.7% | 19.3% | 8.8% | 13.7% |
Current Cond. | 168.7 | 167.8 | 149.9 | 154.3 | 160.1 | 164.3 | 160.2 | 0.5% | 37.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% |
Note -- all percentage changes are at annualized rates, except one-month |