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Economy in Brief


by Robert Brusca Empire State Index Bounces BackMay 15, 2007

The Empire State statistics are arrayed below along with a battery of summary statistics. Current readings are still weak, but not anemic. The Future index is firm.

After several months of very weak readings the Empire States survey is beginning to come around. The barometer is still only about half of its 12-month average but it appears to be bouncing back. Orders, shipments, and unfilled orders are each on gradual recovery tracks not just undergoing volatility. Prices received and paid are trendless. Employment and hours worked each appear to be strengthening. The outlook index is up strongly and is at its 12-month average and at the mid point of its range. But prices paid and received in the outlook surveys are very song and if the Fed is paying attention ( to its own survey) this appears to be very bad news.

The outlook chart shows the Philly outlook index Vs the Empire State index. There was a sharp rise in the NY index in May while the Philly index shows signs of a more deeply seeded rebound that has finally gotten in gear.



Empire State Index Summary
  General New Shipm. Unfilled Delivery Inventory Prices Prices Employ Avg Outlook
  Business Orders   Orders Time   Paid Received   Hrs Index
May-07 8.03 8.02 14.13 0.00 -4.44 0.00 34.44 15.56 9.67 11.11 49.79
Apr-07 3.80 3.94 8.66 -8.33 1.19 7.14 40.48 7.14 5.42 1.19 33.85
Mar-07 1.85 3.14 18.54 -8.14 -4.65 -4.65 30.23 10.47 11.37 12.79 35.17
Feb-07 24.35 18.93 27.07 0.00 -3.23 -7.53 26.88 12.90 12.70 5.38 38.49
Jan-07 9.13 10.26 16.11 -8.51 -5.32 -19.15 35.11 19.15 6.91 -1.06 32.54
Dec-06 22.19 22.52 27.60 -14.61 1.12 -7.87 28.09 13.48 18.60 7.87 41.85
Nov-06 25.00 21.10 26.96 0.00 4.72 3.77 34.90 16.98 23.85 10.38 36.75
Averages
3mo 4.56 5.03 13.78 -5.49 -2.63 0.83 35.05 11.06 8.82 8.36 53.30
6-mo 11.56 11.14 18.69 -6.60 -2.56 -5.34 32.54 13.12 10.78 6.21 52.06
12-mo 15.80 14.40 19.92 -3.06 -0.30 -5.20 37.46 14.95 11.54 9.65 50.08
Since Jan-02
Max 38.9 38.01 44.33 20.83 12.5 8.62 60.58 27.73 23.98 29.17 68
Min -17.08 -9.04 -2.59 -19.57 -15 -20 -2.04 -18.89 -11.62 -11.96 31.37
Avg 17.08 17.34 20.24 -1.67 -1.34 -3.50 32.54 5.38 7.79 7.43 42.91
% of:
Range 44.9% 36.3% 35.6% 48.4% 38.4% 69.9% 58.3% 73.9% 59.8% 56.1% 50.3%
Ranking 22.2% 19.0% 25.4% 66.7% 38.1% 66.7% 49.2% 68.3% 50.8% 68.3% 54.0%
raw rank 49 51 47 21 39 21 32 20 31 20 29
out of: 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63
% of: FUTURE INDEX SUMMARY STATISTICS
Range 51.0% 32.3% 55.7% 42.6% 27.2% 58.5% 67.4% 91.8% 84.0% 26.9% 46.8%
Ranking 54.0% 34.9% 60.3% 28.6% 11.1% 66.7% 71.4% 92.1% 84.1% 31.7% 44.4%
raw rank 29 41 25 45 56 21 18 5 10 43 35
out of: 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63
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