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Economy in Brief
Japan's Inflation Shows Mixed Gains
Japan's inflation rose by 0.4% in July...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in July
Existing home sales declined 5.9% (-20.2% y/y) in July to 4.810 million units...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell Again in July
The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index fell 0.4% m/m...
U.S. Philly Fed General Activity Index Back to Positive Reading in August
The current general activity diffusion index rose nearly 19 points in August to 6.2...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Slightly Lower
Initial claims for unemployment insurance went down 2,000 in the week ended August 13 to 250,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley April 30, 2007
Economic sentiment in the Euro Area is still at its highest level since January, 2001, in spite of a slight decline--one basis point from March to 111.0 in April-- The economic sentiment indicator is so constructed that its long term average is 100. Values above (below) 100 indicate a level of sentiment above (below) average.
The economic sentiment indicator declined sharply in 2001, reaching a low of 87.3 in November. There were short periods when the indicator rose above 100 in 2004 and 2005, but it has only been since December 2005 that there has been a sustained upward trend as can be seen in the first chart.
Sentiment has varied among the countries. The second chart shows the path of sentiment in Germany, France and Italy since 2000. Sentiment in Germany fell the most in the early period, but now appears to be making the strongest comeback of the "Big three".In Belgium, Finland, the Netherlands and Slovakia, economic sentiment is stronger than in the "Big three" as can be seen in the third chart. Two countries where the economic sentiment indicator has fallen below 100 are Spain and Ireland, shown in the fourth chart. These same countries had, until recently been among the brighter spots in the Euro Area.
EUROSTAT Business Climate (Long term Average=100) |
Apr 07 | Mar 07 | Apr 06 | M/M Dif | Y/Y Dif | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Euro Area | 111.0 | 111.1 | 106.0 | -0.1 | 5.0 | 106.9 | 97.9 | 99.2 |
Germany | 111.4 | 110.0 | 105.7 | 1.4 | 5.7 | 105.9 | 95.1 | 95.8 |
France | 109.4 | 109.3 | 106.2 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 106.9 | 103.3 | 106.0 |
Italy | 110.4 | 111.5 | 108.4 | -1.1 | 2.0 | 108.6 | 97.9 | 98.4 |
Belgium | 115.7 | 113.5 | 111.0 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 111.0 | 100.7 | 104.9 |
Finland | 115.5 | 116.1 | 109.3 | -0.6 | 6.2 | 109.5 | 107.1 | 102.0 |
Netherlands | 116.2 | 116.5 | 104.8 | -0.3 | 11.4 | 109.6 | 94.9 | 93.6 |
Slovakia | 124.5 | 123.9 | 104.3 | 0.6 | 20.2 | 111.4 | 98.5 | 105.9 |
Ireland | 99.2 | 101.2 | 101.0 | -2.1 | -1.8 | 103.8 | 96.9 | 96.4 |
Spain | 98.6 | 100.8 | 98.1 | -2.2 | 0.5 | 98.5 | 100.1 | 100.6 |