Recent Updates

  • Kazakhstan: Deposits of Individuals, Bank Loans by Type (Mar); Slovenia: Confidence Indicators (Apr)
  • Euro area: Bank Lending Survey (Q2)
  • Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey (Apr-Press)
  • Spain: Tourism (Mar)
  • Denmark: Government Finance & Debt, Retail Sales (Mar); Finland: Import/Export Price Index (Mar); Sweden: LFS, Hours Worked (Mar)
  • Turkey: Sectoral Confidence Index (Apr)
  • Australia: Population by Region (2017)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

· Industrial production fell by 0.2% in March as utilities output pulled back but manufacturing output advanced by a strong 0.7% led by a gain of 0.9% in durable goods output. March saw a decline in consumer goods output, materials production was flat and there was a rise of 0.8% in business equipment output.

· But for the quarter as a whole and on trend, industrial production is a story of firming consumer output offset by plunging demand for equipment on the part of business with materials output vacillating about unchanged. Manufacturing output rose by 1.5% in Q1 given the strong productivity there that was not enough to create job growth in the sector.

· Looking at the just completed quarter we find industrial production is higher for most measures. So the National ISM report is correct to be above 50. There is a great deal of regional disparity according to various regional manufacturing surveys. We see that in the variety of conditions across industry groups there is a great deal of variation as well. Consumer durables output in the quarter rose at a 0.1% pace as auto output fell. Consumer nondurable output rose by a robust 6% pace with energy output up at a 12% pace. Business equipment output fell in the quarter but computer and office equipment production rose by 34.3%. Materials output was mixed, up by 0.5% in the quarter but up by 1.9% for durable goods and off by 1.7% for nonenergy nondurable goods. Overall auto production fell by 0.1% in Q1 but truck production expanded at a 52% annual rate.  
Industrial Production
  Monthly Percent Changes At Annual Rates of Change SAAR
  Month-to-month Percent Change 3-Month 6-Month Year/Year 07-Q1
Industrial Output Mar-07 Feb-07 Jan-07 %Change %Change %Change Pct Change
All Prod & Materials -0.2% 0.8% -0.4% 1.1% 0.5% 2.3% 1.6%
All Products -0.3% 1.0% -0.4% 1.1% 1.2% 2.5% 2.0%
Final Products -0.3% 1.2% -0.5% 1.4% 2.3% 3.4% 3.1%
Manufacturing only -- -- -- -- -- -- --
MFG - NAICS 0.7% 0.1% -0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 2.7% 1.5%
  MFG - Durables 0.8% 0.2% -1.1% -0.3% 0.7% 3.5% 0.4%
  MFG - Nondurables 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.2% 1.9% 3.0%
Consumer Goods -0.6% 1.7% 0.0% 4.1% 2.4% 2.1% 4.5%
Durables 0.6% 1.7% -2.9% -2.6% 0.2% -1.2% 0.1%
  Automotive Production 0.4% 3.7% -5.4% -6.0% 1.4% -3.1% -0.4%
  Excl Automotive Production 0.7% 0.0% -0.6% 0.5% -0.9% 0.6% 0.6%
Nondurables -1.0% 1.6% 1.0% 6.3% 3.1% 3.2% 6.0%
  Nonenergy 0.6% 0.5% -0.1% 4.0% 4.8% 3.9% 4.3%
  Consumption Energy -6.1% 5.4% 4.5% 13.5% -2.2% 0.7% 12.1%
Business Equip. 0.8% 0.3% -2.2% -4.5% 3.3% 7.4% -0.6%
  Transportation 0.2% -0.1% -1.4% -5.2% 6.0% 7.6% 0.3%
  Computer & Office Equipment 3.5% 3.3% 2.4% 38.2% 30.6% 28.3% 34.4%
  Excl Technology & Transportation 0.8% -0.2% -2.2% -6.4% 2.3% 6.7% -2.0%
Materials 0.0% 0.5% -0.4% 0.7% -0.5% 2.1% 0.5%
Durables 1.0% -0.2% 0.1% 3.5% -0.2% 3.6% 1.9%
Nondurables excl energy 0.6% 0.1% -1.2% -2.3% -1.7% 0.3% -1.7%
Energy -2.2% 2.3% -0.1% -0.4% 0.2% 1.6% 0.7%
U.S. IP is Up But Still is a Mixed Up Sector
by Robert Brusca April 17, 2007

The chart on the left shows the trends for output by main manufacturing sector. As consumer output has steadied and strengthened, the business sector has been unraveling. This is an unpleasant picture and has been quite unexpected. We still do not know what is holding business back.

close
large image