Recent Updates
- Euro area: Flash Consumer Confidence (Apr)
- Ireland: Producer & Wholesale Price Indexes (Mar)
- UK: Capital Issuance (Mar)
- Spain: Trade in Constant Prices, Trade in Goods (Feb)
- Germany: Federal Budget, PPI, Monthly Tax Revenue (Mar), Short-term Indicator (Feb), Public Sector Finance (Q4)
- Colombia: Imports (Feb); Brazil: IPCA-15 (Apr)
- Turkey: Non-Domestic PPI, House Sales, Central Government and Domestic Debt by Instrument, External Debt by Lender, Domestic
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
The flows in the table below are the detail behind the trade headlines. In February the US trade deficit shrank by a small amount to -$58.44 billion from -$58.88 billion in January. If we look at the inflation adjusted flows for the quarter to date versus Q4 2006 there is a slight deterioration implying some subtraction from GDP due to trade flows in Q1 2007. |
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Category | Current | Previous | $SA % SAAR | MEMO: | ||
Feb.07 | MO % | MO % | 3-MO | 6-MO | Yr/Yr | Yr/Yr |
Real Exports | -3.7% | 1.7% | -9.7% | -0.7% | 5.3% | 10.3% |
Food, Feed, & Beverages | -2.5% | 5.2% | 24.7% | -12.4% | 7.3% | -0.2% |
Industrial Materials | -4.0% | 1.8% | -16.4% | -0.7% | 5.4% | 0.5% |
Capital Goods | -5.7% | 3.2% | -13.4% | -0.2% | 3.1% | 18.5% |
Autos & Parts | 3.6% | -6.8% | 8.4% | -5.1% | 2.3% | 13.6% |
Consumer Goods | -2.8% | 3.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 7.6% |
Other | -3.6% | -3.5% | -46.5% | -0.4% | 14.9% | 15.5% |
Real Imports | -1.9% | 0.3% | 0.5% | -3.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% |
Food, Feeds, & Beverages | 0.5% | 0.9% | 6.9% | -0.4% | 4.1% | 5.8% |
Industrial Materials | -7.7% | 3.6% | -4.9% | -17.5% | -9.3% | 0.8% |
Capital Goods | -0.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 0.4% | 11.4% | 10.3% |
Autos & Parts | -0.4% | -7.2% | -2.9% | -3.9% | -1.7% | 8.4% |
Consumer Goods | 2.8% | -3.4% | 1.8% | 10.5% | 13.5% | -1.0% |
Other | 0.2% | -2.6% | -3.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% |
The table above is a table of inflation adjusted merchandise trade for the end use commodity designations used to categorize trade flows. They show some slight deterioration in the quarter-to-date trade balance. But the real story in this report is export and import weakness. These flows are all inflation-adjusted so oil has a minimal impact even on industrial materials, the category that contains it. For the month we can see all export categories decline. The table also tells a tale of weak export trends. Export trends weaken overall and are outright negative in three of four categories in February. But broader export trends weaken too, and this is even more disturbing. Overall real export growth rates drop from 10.3% a year ago, to 5.3% Yr/Yr as of February 2007. Then they drop to -0.7% over six months and to -9.7% over the most recent three months (all expressed as annual rates of change). This pronounced slowdown in exports is disturbing. For imports the slowing is not as dramatic but still is clear: from a 4% pace a year ago to a Yr/Yr pace of 2.6% currently. Then the pace drops off to -3.8% over six months slightly rebounds to an anemic +0.5% over three months (all expressed at annual rates). The weakness in export trends is quite apparent and does not seem to be the result of a normal statistical variation. The slowing seems real and economic instead of false and statistical in nature. For imports the slowing is more gradual and authentically fits in with the slowdown in the US economy, it may be this slowing that has transmitted weakness abroad and come back to haunt the US in the form of slower US exports abroad. |