Recent Updates
- New Zealand: Food Price Index (Jul)
- New Zealand: Jobseeker Support by Territorial Authority (Jul)
- Korea: Import & Export Price Indexes Press (Jul)
- US: Business Formation Statistics, Producer Prices (Jul)
- US: Business Formation Statistics by State (Jul)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
U.S. CPI Unchanged in July with Drop in Energy Prices
Consumer prices were unchanged in July after an outsized 1.3% m/m jump in June...
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley April 9 2007
The results of the latest survey of Economy Watchers in Japan are lackluster. After losing confidence in both current conditions and the outlook since early last year, the Economy Watchers have increased their confidence regarding current conditions. The diffusion indexes for current conditions for households and corporations rose in February and March of this year, that for employment fell in February, but rose to its January level in March, as can be seen in the first chart.
The loss in confidence about the future outlook since early 2006 has been less pronounced than that of current conditions, but the diffusion indexes for future conditions in households and corporations have continued to decline in March of this year while that for employment rose, as can be seen in the second chart.
The Economy Watchers currently number 2050 individuals who are in a position to observe developments that reflect economic activity in their particular fields of business. A diffusion index is calculated on the basis of the judgment of these individuals. That proportion of the individuals who see things better is assigned a weight of l; that proportion seeing things rather better, a weight of .75; that proportion seeing no change, a weight of .50; that proportion seeing things rather worse, .25; and that portion seeing things worse, a weight of 0. An index above 50% indicates that there are more optimists than pessimists.The Economy Watchers Index for Households can be thought of as the opinion of the suppliers of household goods whereas a consumer confidence index is based on the opinions of the actual consumer. In the third chart we compare the Economy Watchers Index for Household current conditions and the Consumer Confidence Index of 2 person Households. While the suppliers tend to be more volatile in their opinions, confidence on the part of both consumers and suppliers has shown little enthusiasm over the past few years.
ECONOMY WATCHERS SURVEY (Diffusion Indexes) |
Mar 06 | Feb 06 | Mar 05 | M/M Dif | Y/Y Dif | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current Conditions | ||||||||
Total | 50.8 | 49.2 | 57.3 | 1.6 | -6.5 | 51.4 | 49.0 | 50.0 |
Households | 49.3 | 47.9 | 56.0 | 2.0 | -6.1 | 49.8 | 49.0 | 47.8 |
Corporations | 50.9 | 49.8 | 57.5 | 1.1 | -6.6 | 51.8 | 50.5 | 51.6 |
Employment | 55.9 | .56.3 | 65.5 | 0.4 | -9.2 | 60.2 | 57.7 | 61.7 |
Future Conditions | ||||||||
Total | 51.3 | 52.1 | 56.2 | -0.8 | -4.9 | 52.9 | 51.5 | 51.4 |
Households | 51.6 | 52.3 | 56.2 | -0.7 | -4.6 | 52.5 | 50.9 | 50.4 |
Corporations | 47.9 | 49.6 | 54.0 | -1.7 | -6.1 | 51.7 | 50.6 | 50.6 |
Employment | 56.6 | 55.9 | 56.6 | 0.7 | -4.7 | 58.4 | 56.9 | 59.8 |
Consumer Confidence (2 Person HH) |