Recent Updates
- Czech Republic: Construction (Jun)
- Albania: Business and Consumers Survey, CPI (Jul)
- Uganda: PPI (Jun)
- Ireland: Live Register [Registered Unemployment] (Jul)
- Vietnam: Customs Trade (Jul)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Surges in June
Consumer credit outstanding jumped $40.1 billion (7.7% y/y) in June...
Japan's LEI Waffles and Slows
Japan's leading economic index in June slipped to 100.6...
U.S. Foreign Trade Deficit Narrows in June
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) fell to $79.61 billion in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Remain on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended July 30 rose 6,000 to 260,000...
RICS Survey Shows Weakening U.K. Housing Market
With the Bank of England hiking its key rate by 50 basis points and planning to squeeze its balance sheet...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Excess Demand for Goods Caused Supply Constraints
Q2 GDP Does Not Confirm Economic Recession, But It Does Confirm A Corporate Profit Recession
State Coincident Indexes in June 2022
State Labor Markets in June 2022
No Recession Call Can Be Made Before BEA Explains The Record Gap Between Income & Output
by Louise Curley April 2, 2007
Japan's Tankan released today showed that the headline large manufacturers' business condition DI (Diffusion Index) declined to 23% in March from 25% in December. These same firms forecast that the DI would decline further in June to 20%. The DI for non manufacturing large firms, on the contrary, remained steady in March at 22% and forecast that it would rise to 22% in June. The first two charts compare the actual results and forecasts for large manufacturing and non manufacturing firms.
As noted in the JAPAN data base, major revisions in the Tankan survey have created a discontinuity in the series beginning with the first quarter of 2004. The old series is maintained by Haver as a DISCONTINUED series. While the two series are not comparable, the old series is useful in that it provides some perspective in which we can judge the recent data. We have plotted the actual conditions of large manufacturing firms in the new and the DISCONTINUED series. While the recent data are less robust than those of the nineties, they are significantly above those of the decade or so of sub par Japanese economic activity, as shown in the third chart.
Fixed investment expenditures by large manufacturing firms are forecast to increase more slowly, from 2.8% to 2.5%, in the current fiscal year; those by the large non manufacturing firms are set to increase 3.1% from 1.6% last year. The fourth chart shows in forecasted increases in fixed investment by large firms.
JAPANESE TANKAN | Q2 06 | Q1 06 | Q4 05 | Q3 05 | Q2 05 | Q1 05 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Conditions Forecasts Large Firms (Percent Balance) | ||||||
Manufacturing | 20 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 19 |
Non Manufacturing | 23 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 17 |
Business Conditions Actual Large Firms Percent Balance | ||||||
Manufacturing | -- | 23 | 25 | 24 | 21 | 20 |
Non Manufacturing | -- | 22 | 22 | 20 | 20 | 18 |
Fixed Investment Expenditures % Change |
2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | ||
Manufacturing | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 2.5 | -- | -- |
NonManufacturing | -4.1 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | -- | -- |