Recent Updates
- ** Statistics New Zealand has reported corrections to their Q4 national accounts release from March 20th. Corrections have been updated in the ANZ database.**
- Netherlands: Labor Force Survey (Feb), Household Consumption (Jan)
- Thailand: International Trade (Feb)
- India: International Liabilities & Claims (Q3)
- Australia: Labor Force Survey, WMI Leading Indicator of Economic Activity (Feb), Population, Interstate Migration (Q3), Bank
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Strengthen As Financing Costs Ease
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Index rose 1.6% (1.8% y/y) during the week ending March 15...
German PPI Falls and the Trend Continues to Deteriorate
While conservative central bankers continue to worry about the prospect for inflation to surge, global inflation reports continue to undershoot these fears...
U.S. Factory Orders Inch Higher; Shipments Fall Again
Manufacturers' orders gained 0.1% (4.2% y/y) during January...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise
Retail gasoline prices increased to $2.55 per gallon (-1.9% y/y)...
ZEW's Global Assessments Remain Weak
ZEW survey expectations curled higher this month but continued to stake out very weak readings...
U.S. Construction Also Rises…
by Robert Brusca March 30, 2007
Commentary Archive
by Robert Brusca March 30, 2007
| Construction Put In Place $-Millions | ||||||
| Percentage Change as Noted | ||||||
| 1-Mo | 1-Mo SAAR | 3-Mo | 6-MO | Yr/Yr | Share | |
| Total | 0.3% | 3.3% | -9.4% | -4.8% | -2.4% | 100.0% |
| Private | 0.2% | 2.6% | -18.1% | -9.5% | -6.0% | 75.5% |
| Residential | -1.0% | -11.0% | -31.2% | -17.0% | -15.1% | 48.0% |
| Lodging | 2.6% | 35.8% | 46.2% | 20.9% | 45.4% | 1.9% |
| Office | -0.2% | -2.1% | 43.1% | 19.6% | 31.9% | 4.5% |
| Commercial | 1.8% | 23.3% | 9.2% | 4.5% | 8.6% | 6.8% |
| Transport | 1.6% | 21.6% | 24.2% | 11.5% | -0.7% | 0.8% |
| Communication | 6.8% | 119.4% | 96.9% | 40.3% | 16.8% | 1.6% |
| Power | 6.2% | 105.8% | -36.4% | -20.3% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
| MFG | 5.0% | 78.7% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 23.1% | 3.5% |
| Other | 0.6% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 4.6% | 9.8% | 5.8% |
| Public | 0.4% | 5.4% | 26.0% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 24.5% |
| Highway | 0.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 10.9% | 6.8% |
| Sewer | -0.2% | -3.0% | 36.9% | 17.0% | 8.9% | 1.8% |
| Water | -0.1% | -1.4% | -3.9% | -2.0% | 6.9% | 1.1% |
| Other | 0.5% | 6.7% | 37.3% | 17.2% | 10.6% | 14.8% |
Construction spending in February rose by 0.3% and the drop in January was revised upward from a drop of 0.8 to one of 0.5%.
In the current quarter private residential spending is off at a 19% pace. Other private spending rising at a 16% pace. Public spending is up at an 11% pace. Still, due to the size of the residential sector overall spending is dropping at a 4% pace in 2007-Q1.
The chart on the left shows trends in the three main construction segments Private residential, Public and other private. These six month annualized growth rates show that nonresidential private spending is faltering, but still carrying positive growth. Private residential spending is stabilizing but still sinking at a steady 19% annualized rate of decline. Public spending is oscillating and growing at about a 12% pace.
Although private residential spending shows signs of bottoming, this is in terms of a steep negative growth rate. Such ‘stabilization’ still implies subtraction from GDP. Meanwhile a major stabilizing factor, other private spending is decelerating rapidly. I suppose this not surprising given the way corporations have pulled back from, capital spending on equipment and software. Construction projects are certainly a little less malleable. |
| Construction Put In Place $-Millions | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percentage Change as Noted | ||||||
| 1-Mo | 1-Mo SAAR | 3-Mo | 6-MO | Yr/Yr | Share | |
| Total | 0.3% | 3.3% | -9.4% | -4.8% | -2.4% | 100.0% |
| Private | 0.2% | 2.6% | -18.1% | -9.5% | -6.0% | 75.5% |
| Residential | -1.0% | -11.0% | -31.2% | -17.0% | -15.1% | 48.0% |
| Lodging | 2.6% | 35.8% | 46.2% | 20.9% | 45.4% | 1.9% |
| Office | -0.2% | -2.1% | 43.1% | 19.6% | 31.9% | 4.5% |
| Commercial | 1.8% | 23.3% | 9.2% | 4.5% | 8.6% | 6.8% |
| Transport | 1.6% | 21.6% | 24.2% | 11.5% | -0.7% | 0.8% |
| Communication | 6.8% | 119.4% | 96.9% | 40.3% | 16.8% | 1.6% |
| Power | 6.2% | 105.8% | -36.4% | -20.3% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
| MFG | 5.0% | 78.7% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 23.1% | 3.5% |
| Other | 0.6% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 4.6% | 9.8% | 5.8% |
| Public | 0.4% | 5.4% | 26.0% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 24.5% |
| Highway | 0.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 10.9% | 6.8% |
| Sewer | -0.2% | -3.0% | 36.9% | 17.0% | 8.9% | 1.8% |
| Water | -0.1% | -1.4% | -3.9% | -2.0% | 6.9% | 1.1% |
| Other | 0.5% | 6.7% | 37.3% | 17.2% | 10.6% | 14.8% |
