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Economy in Brief

Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Down Less Than Expected
by Tom Moeller February 22, 2007

Initial unemployment insurance claims fell 27,000 to 332,000 after a revised 46,000 increase the week prior. The figure fell short of Consensus expectations for a decline to 325,000 claims.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.

The figure covers the survey period for February nonfarm payrolls and claims rose 45,000 (15.7%) from the January period.

The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 328,000 (11.0% y/y).

A 45,000 drop in continuing claims for unemployment insurance reversed most of a revised 65,000 jump the week prior.

The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9%, about where it's been since February.

A Currency at Home and Abroad from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 02/17/07 02/10/07 Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Initial Claims 332 359 14.9% 313 332 343
 Continuing Claims -- 2,509 0.4% 2,459 2,662 2,924
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