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Economy in Brief

Weekly Chain Store Sales Slipped Again
by Tom Moeller February 21, 2007

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales slipped for the third week in the last four. The 0.1% decline last week lowered sales so far this month to a level that is all of 0.1% ahead of January after the 2.8% gain that month.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell sharply for the third week in the last four, by 1.1% (-0.2% y/y).

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 2/17/07 2/10/06 Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 478.1 478.7 3.5% 3.3% 3.6% 4.7%
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