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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
U.S. Import Prices Pulled Lower by Falling Oil Prices
Import prices fell 1.0% during December following a 1.8% November decline...
U.S. Home Builder Index Improves
The NAHB -Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose to 58 during January...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Continue to Strengthen
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Index increased 13.5% (1.4% y/y) during the week ended January 11...
by Tom Moeller February 12, 2007
Announced job cuts reported by Challenger, Grey & Christmas in January rose 15.2% to 62,975 and reversed about half of the prior month's decline. The three month moving average of layoff announcements nevertheless declined to 64,797, its lowest level since August.
During the last ten years there has been an 83% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average level of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment.
Layoffs fell sharply m/m in the automotive (-92.6% y/y) and chemical (-87.0% y/y) and financial (+20.4% y/y) industries.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
Challenger also reported that announced hiring plans rose 17.9% m/m (-43.4% y/y).
| Challenger, Gray & Christmas | January | December | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Announced Job Cuts | 62,975 | 54,643 | -39.1% | 839,822 | 1,072,054 | 1,039,935 |
