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Economy in Brief
U.S. Import Prices Rise With Higher Fuel Costs; Export Prices Steady
Import prices increased 0.5% (3.5% y/y) during September...
EMU IP Gain Is Unexpectedly Strong
After two months of relatively deep declines, EMU IP has turned higher. It gained 1% in August...
U.S. CPI & Core CPI Edge Higher
The CPI rose 0.1% (2.3% y/y) during September...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Show Modest Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 214,000 (-11.2% y/y) during the week ended October 6...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Decline As Interest Rates Rise
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Index was fell 1.7% (-14.4% y/y) in the week ending October 5...
by Tom Moeller February 12, 2007
Announced job cuts reported by Challenger, Grey & Christmas in January rose 15.2% to 62,975 and reversed about half of the prior month's decline. The three month moving average of layoff announcements nevertheless declined to 64,797, its lowest level since August.
During the last ten years there has been an 83% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average level of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment.
Layoffs fell sharply m/m in the automotive (-92.6% y/y) and chemical (-87.0% y/y) and financial (+20.4% y/y) industries.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
Challenger also reported that announced hiring plans rose 17.9% m/m (-43.4% y/y).
| Challenger, Gray & Christmas | January | December | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Announced Job Cuts | 62,975 | 54,643 | -39.1% | 839,822 | 1,072,054 | 1,039,935 |
