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Economy in Brief
German PPI Rises at Nine-Month High Pace
The German PPI gained 0.2% in June on the heels of a 0.6% rise in May...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Improve
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.5% (5.8% y/y) during June...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Recover; Prices Surge
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rebounded to 25.7 during July...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Hit Lowest Since 1969
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 207,000 during the week ended July 14...
Japan's Trade Deficit Swings Back to Surplus (Small Surplus)
Japan's early June trade results show a goods trade position having swung back to surplus in June from deficit in May...
by Tom Moeller February 12, 2007
Announced job cuts reported by Challenger, Grey & Christmas in January rose 15.2% to 62,975 and reversed about half of the prior month's decline. The three month moving average of layoff announcements nevertheless declined to 64,797, its lowest level since August.
During the last ten years there has been an 83% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average level of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment.
Layoffs fell sharply m/m in the automotive (-92.6% y/y) and chemical (-87.0% y/y) and financial (+20.4% y/y) industries.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
Challenger also reported that announced hiring plans rose 17.9% m/m (-43.4% y/y).
| Challenger, Gray & Christmas | January | December | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Announced Job Cuts | 62,975 | 54,643 | -39.1% | 839,822 | 1,072,054 | 1,039,935 |
