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Economy in Brief

Weekly Chain Store Sales Recover
by Tom Moeller February 6, 2007

With a 1.3% increase last week, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales recovered from the sharp 0.9% decline at the end of January. The lift enabled the new month to begin 0.7% ahead of the old.

The average level of chain store sales in January rose 2.8% from December.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS rose 0.7% after the 1.2% drop the prior week and so far for January is down 0.3%.

Stock Market Dispersion and Unemployment from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 2/03/07 1/27/06 Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 482.8 476.4 4.3% 3.3% 3.6% 4.7%
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