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Economy in Brief

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Firm for January
by Tom Moeller February 5, 2007

The University of Michigan's final reading of consumer sentiment during January remained quite solid versus December at 96.9 (Q1 1966 = 100). The reading fell, however, from the mid-month read of 98.0.

The reading of current conditions increased to 111.3 from December's 108.1, up 3.0% after a 2.0 rise during that month.

Consumers' reading of personal finances rose 3.4%, the firmest rise in three months, as the sense of buying conditions for large household goods rose 3.1% after a 3.2% December gain.

The expectations component recouped all of the decline during the prior two months with a 7.9% increase and the rise was to the highest level since 2004. Expected business conditions surge 12.4% and expected personal finances rose 2.4% (5.8% y/y).

Consumers' assessment of government policy and performance rose to the highest level since 2005 but expectations about inflation during the next twelve months rose slightly to 3.6%.

The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.This mid-month survey was based on telephone interviews with about 340 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month-end.

University of Michigan January (Final) January (Prelim.) December Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Consumer Sentiment 96.9 98.0 91.7 6.3% 87.3 88.6 95.2
   Current Conditions 111.3 112.5 108.1 0.9% 105.1 105.9 105.6
   Expectations 87.6 88.7 81.2 11.0% 75.9 77.4 88.5
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