Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Aug-prelim), Import/Export Prices (Jul)
- US: Consumer Sentiment Detail (Aug-prelim)
- US: Vehicle Miles Driven by State (Jun)
- Bulgaria: Agricultural PPI (Q2) Central Bank Survey (Jul)
- Blue Chip: Blue Chip Economic Indicators (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 1, 2007
A 20,000 drop in initial unemployment insurance claims last week to 307.000 reversed half of the upwardly revised increase the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 304,750 (6.6% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance jumped 71,000 (1.1% y/y).
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9%, about where it's been since February.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 01/27/07 | 01/20/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 307 | 327 | 8.1% | 313 | 332 | 343 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,484 | -3.2% | 2,459 | 2,662 | 2,924 |
