Recent Updates
- Austria: CPI, HICP (Sep-Press)
- Germany: Turnover in Hotels and Restaurants (Aug)
- Finland: Bankruptcy Filings (Sep)
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- Japan: Visitor Arrivals (Sep-Prelim), Construction Works Put in Place (Aug); Russia: Deposits of Individuals (Aug)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Home Builder Index Improves, but Remains Below Last Year's High
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo inched up during October to 68 from an unrevised 67 in September...
U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Hits Another Record
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate rose to a record 4.6% in August...
U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices Ease; Natural Gas Prices Increase
Gasoline prices slipped to an average $2.88 per gallon last week (+15.7% y/y)...
Macroeconomic Assessments by ZEW Experts Continue to Sink
Financial experts responding in the ZEW economic survey found current conditions weaker just about across the board...
U.S. Retail Sales Post Disappointing Increase
Total retail sales improved 0.1% (4.7% y/y) during September...
by Tom Moeller January 31, 2007
The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Assn. reported that its January business barometer fell to 48.8. It was the first month the diffusion index of factory sector activity fell below the break even line of 50 since 2003.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the index and the three month change in US factory sector industrial production.
Lower new orders and weaker employment accounted for much of the weakening while production was up.
The prices paid index dropped to to the lowest level since late 2003.During the last ten years there has been an 89% correlation between the level of the prices diffusion index and the three month change in the core PPI for intermediate good.
The latest statement from the Federal Reserve Board can be found here.
| Chicago PMI | January | December | Jan. '06 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index | 48.8 | 51.6 | 58.1 | 56.8 | 60.4 | 62.8 |
