Recent Updates
- Canada: Wholesale Trade, MSIO (Nov)
- Canada Regional: Wholesale Trade, MSIO by Province (Nov)
- US: Philadelphia Fed Nonmfg Business Outlook Survey (Jan)
- Hungary: Wages (Nov), Fostered Workers, Social Security Balance (Dec), Maturity Profile of Central Government Debt (Q4)
- Ireland: PPI, WPI (Dec), Personal Bankruptcy (Q4)
- Mexico: Employment (Dec)
- Budget Implementation (Nov)
- Iraq: Internal Public Debt
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity Slumps Again in January
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current conditions at the company level slumped further to -0.2 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Celebrates 100 Years With An Increase
In the 100th anniversary of it release, industrial production rose a greater-than-expected 0.3% (3.9% year-on-year) during December...
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
by Tom Moeller January 31, 2007
The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Assn. reported that its January business barometer fell to 48.8. It was the first month the diffusion index of factory sector activity fell below the break even line of 50 since 2003.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the index and the three month change in US factory sector industrial production.
Lower new orders and weaker employment accounted for much of the weakening while production was up.
The prices paid index dropped to to the lowest level since late 2003.During the last ten years there has been an 89% correlation between the level of the prices diffusion index and the three month change in the core PPI for intermediate good.
The latest statement from the Federal Reserve Board can be found here.
| Chicago PMI | January | December | Jan. '06 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index | 48.8 | 51.6 | 58.1 | 56.8 | 60.4 | 62.8 |
