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Economy in Brief

Weekly Chain Store Sales Reversed Prior Gains
by Tom Moeller January 30, 2007

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales last week reversed all of the increases during the prior four weeks with a 0.9% decline.

Nevertheless, the average level of chain store sales in January is up a notably firm 2.8% from the prior month.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS also gave back all of the gains during the prior two weeks with a 1.1% decline and for the month is 0.4% below December.

Access to Credit is the latest International Economic Trends from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and it is available here.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 1/27/07 1/20/06 Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 476.4 480.9 4.9% 3.3% 3.6% 4.7%
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