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Economy in Brief

Consumer Confidence Rose Slightly, Highest Since 2002
by Tom Moeller January 30, 2007

Consumer confidence increased a modest 0.3% in January, according to the Conference Board Survey, following an upwardly revised 4.5% December gain. The increase was to the highest level since March 2002.

The reading of present conditions rose a firmer 2.6% after the 4.1% December increase as the percentage of respondents who viewed business conditions as good rose to 28.1%, the highest since last May. The percentage who viewed jobs as plentiful also rose to 29.9%, the highest since 2001.

Expectations, however, reversed nearly half of the December gain with a 1.9% decline. Expectations about future income fell the hardest, offset by an uptick in expected employment conditions.

The expected inflation rate in twelve months ticked lower to 4.7%, that was versus expectations during all of last year for a 5.1% rate of inflation in twelve months.

Monetary Policy Inertia and Recent Fed Actions from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.

Conference Board
 (SA, 1985=100)
January December Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Consumer Confidence Index 110.3 110.0 3.3% 105.9 100.3 96.1
Present Conditions 133.9 130.5 4.0% 130. 116.1 94.9
Expectations 94.5 96.3 2.6% 89.7 89.7 96.9
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